Top Newcastle trainer Kris Lees has prepared the runner-up in the $1 million The Hunter at his home track in all three editions.
Each time, his horse has been beaten between a length and a length and a half. And every time Lees has had four or five runners in the 1300m event.
On Saturday, Lees has just one, Gem Song. But if the trainer is correct with his prediction of a more even race and a blanket finish this year, Gem Song might just be the right horse.
The seven-year-old has shown his fighting qualities to come back from a serious tendon injury to win another $300,000 in prizemoney.
It's been reward for Lees, who backed his team to get the Gooree Stud product back to the races after he was hurt in the 2019 Golden Eagle. Lees, with Australian Bloodstock, bought him for $30,000 at a dispersal sale and syndicated the horse.
"He's been a great horse for the stable since the time he came in," Lees said.
"He's had a change of connections mid-career when in some ways it looked like his career was over, but through some really good care, especially out at the farm with Kieran Forbes and the team at Ellalong, we've been able to rejuvenate him and prolong his career, so that's been very pleasing.
"The horse we knew had a lot of quality, so it wasn't a huge punt. We just knew he needed to be given the chance and the time.
"He's got his little idiosyncrasies but he's a lovely horse. The horses reared at Gooree are always hardy and tough."
Gem Song has won the group 3 Newmarket Handicap and Star Kingdom Stakes at Newcastle in his comeback.
As well as an affinity with the track, Gem Song - a $16 shot for The Hunter with Bet365 on Friday - has drawn well in six and has class jockey Hugh Bowman aboard.
"He gets a good run from there, he races well at the track, he gets a good jockey," Lees said.
"It's a good race. I believe it will be a bit like the Sydney Stakes. I don't think there will be much between the first 10 across the line so luck in running will play its part."
Also in his favour has been a plan to target The Hunter. Off a short freshen, Gem Song will be second-up after finishing less than two lengths away in the October 15 Sydney Stakes (1200m). He has won three of seven runs when second-up.
"I think for some of the horses, the race is at the back-end of the season they've had and it's another run because it's a million dollar race," Lees said. "A couple of the horses have been specifically set for the race, giving them a chance to run to their best, but again, it's a good race across the board.
"And then there's some early in their prep, going on to other things, so you're getting the crossover of those two styles."
Win or lose, though, Gem Song has been a special horse for Lees.
"It's always a difficult task because your 12 months off the scene doesn't give you the right to drop back in grade in our sport," he said of Gem Song's injury.
"It's not like he can go back and play reserve grade. There's nowhere to hide, so he's been racing at that high level since he was three really."
The other Hunter-trained chances in the feature are Paul Perry's Sky Lab ($31) and Sam Kavanagh's Aramayo ($61). In The Congo ($4.60) and Vilana ($5) were battling for favouritism on Friday.
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