Officials in the Kremlin are working to downplay Ukraine's invasion into the Kursk region as Russian President Vladimir Putin faces challenges in halting Kyiv's advances on his home turf. Reports suggest that sources in the Kremlin are urging government-funded media agencies to minimize the severity of the Ukrainian incursion and promote a propaganda campaign encouraging Russians to accept the 'new normal.'
Ukraine has claimed success in capturing over 780 square miles of Kursk, including the town of Sudhza and nearly 100 Russian villages, according to Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Moscow is reportedly trying to distract Russians through humanitarian aid efforts and assuring residents in the Kursk region that Russian forces will reclaim the area after Ukraine's anticipated defeat on its eastern front.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that his forces are not intended to stay in southwestern Russia long-term but are serving as a 'buffer zone' to defend against Russian attacks in the northern Sumy region. Zelenskyy recently visited Sumy to meet with military officials, avoiding crossing into Kursk to prevent provocation.
The operational objectives of Ukraine in Kursk remain unclear, with speculation that it may be a strategy to divert Russian forces from eastern Ukraine. Reports suggest that Russian officials believe Ukrainian forces could remain in the region for several months, indicating potential challenges for Putin in deploying sufficient troops to retake Kursk.
Analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Russia is relying on a war of attrition against Ukraine, capitalizing on artillery deficiencies exacerbated by delays in U.S. arms deliveries earlier this year. Despite Ukraine's artillery disadvantage, Kyiv has utilized alternative tactics such as drones and long-range missile strikes to counter Russian advances.
ISW highlights that both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability for decisive war-winning operations and must focus on multiple successful operations with limited objectives to achieve strategic goals. Concerns persist over Russian advances in Donetsk, where Ukraine has initiated mandatory evacuations.
