The volume of incoming economic data remains light with the next Fed meeting two weeks away, though the frequency of Fed officials appearing on the calendar is steady ahead of the "quiet period" that starts on Saturday, March 7.
As for magnitude, the numbers we'll see on Jobs Friday will provide plenty of information for economists and analysts, as well as investors, traders and speculators, to ponder and price. The central bank's "dual mandate" covers inflation and employment. Recent evidence from the former front is mixed, but the January jobs report was better than expected.
Markets are adjusting with the data. But markets also expect significant changes in monetary policy when Kevin Warsh replaces Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May, pending Senate approval.
Economic reports we're watching
Thursday, March 5: Weekly jobless claims: "If the labor market takes a major turn for the better or worse," labor economist Guy Berger writes, "we'll see it here." Weekly jobless claims are what Berger describes as "high-frequency labor market indicators."
Friday, March 6: Nonfarm payrolls report: Job creation in the U.S. surprised to the upside in January, but economists are drawing different conclusions about whether we're witnessing the start of a sustainable trend or simply seeing an anomaly based on statistical adjustments.
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Reports that have been delayed due to the government shutdown are marked with an asterisk (*).
Monday (3/2)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
9:45 am |
S&P Global Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) |
February |
10 am |
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI |
February |
Tuesday (3/3)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
9:55 am |
New York Fed President John Williams speaks |
N/A |
11:55 am |
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks |
N/A |
Wednesday (3/4)
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:15 am |
ADP National Employment Report |
February |
9:45 am |
S&P Global Final Services PMI |
February |
10:00 |
ISM Services PMI |
February |
2 pm |
Beige Book |
N/A |
Thursday (3/5)
The canary in the coal mine
The Department of Labor (pdf) said weekly jobless claims increased by 4,000 during the week ended February 21 to 212,000, lower than a median forecast of 216,000.
The four-week moving average increased by 1,000 to 220,000. Continuing claims for the week ended February 14 declined by 31,000 to 1.833 million, below the median forecast of 1.858 million.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance are "running at 2023 and 2024 levels, and below 2025 levels," observes Guy Berger, a senior advisor on labor markets at Access/Macro and the workforce economist in residence at Guild.
People focus on initial claims, but "improvement in continuing claims is more meaningful. And if it's right, that's genuinely good news about the U.S. labor market." But Berger is "slightly worried that they're painting an overly upbeat picture" of the current labor market.
"This improvement is a little out of sync with the other labor market data we're getting." Berger notes that the share of the labor force unemployed due to permanent layoffs "shows no signs of declining (and is probably still creeping up)."
Other high-frequency indicators the labor economist tracks "don't show an improvement either."
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Weekly jobless claims |
Week ending February 28 |
8:30 am |
Productivity |
Q4 |
8:30 am |
Import Price Index |
February |
Friday (3/6)
It's Jobs Friday
"We estimate that nonfarm payroll employment rose just 25k in February," Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni writes, "substantially slower than the gain in January." The economist expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%.
The January jobs report showed the U.S. payrolls grew by 130,000 during the first month of the year. But Giannoni sees a slowdown in February "driven by a partial unwinding of January's surprising upswing in the birth-death adjustment for the health care and social services industry."
As the economist explains, that birth-death adjustment "accounted for nearly all of the prior month's job gain." Giannoni expects slower private nonfarm payrolls growth than in December and January and flat government payrolls.
"Our forecast would imply a three-month average increase of 68k in headline employment," Giannoni writes, which is "considerably faster" than the average decline of 8,000 for the three months ending in November.
The economist forecast private payrolls – "which likely provides a cleaner indication of underlying pace of job gains" – grew at a three-month average of 87,000 vs 51,000 over the three-month period ended in November.
"Uncertainty about our official forecast remains elevated," Giannoni concedes, "with various indicators and approaches sending different signals."
Time released |
Economic report |
Period |
8:30 am |
Nonfarm payrolls report |
February |
1:30 pm |
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks |
N/A |
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
