Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been clear: The central bank has gotten too comfortable sharing its expectations for the path of monetary policy, and believes its policy decisions have been hamstrung as a result. Wall Street is now blasting its response: Dialing back communications will be tolerated, a perceived void of information will not be.
The boomerang Fed policymaker (Warsh served on the Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 under his mentor, chairman Ben Bernanke) has been consistent in his criticism of forward guidance—the practice of publicly sharing expectations of where short-term interest rates will go.
During a press conference following the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last week, Warsh built on his thinking. In reducing forward guidance, he said, market prices can respond to economic data “in the direction and magnitude they see fit.” This ultimately benefits the Fed, he suggested: “The central bank need not always and everywhere be the center of attention … For our part, we need to observe market reaction to developments, direct and unfiltered.”
If reaction is welcome, markets delivered: Long-dated bonds spiked after Warsh’s statement and remain elevated, while two-year Treasuries slumped, reflecting expectations that the Fed would not be tightening financial conditions. The response from investors wasn’t necessarily in reaction to what Warsh did or didn’t say, J.P. Morgan’s Alex Wolf told Fortune, it was a reflection of newfound uncertainty.
