The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and the Congress party, helming the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) respectively, appear to face a crucial test of their coalition management skills on the allocation of three Rajya Sabha seats that will become vacant a month after the Lok Sabha 2024 election results are declared.
The outcome of the Lok Sabha election results on June 4 will be a determining factor in the bargaining power of alliance partners vying for these seats in the Upper House of Parliament. Rumblings have begun on both fronts with key contenders such as the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the UDF, and the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Kerala Congress (M) in the LDF in the reckoning.
The six-year tenure of three Rajya Sabha seats, currently held by CPI(M) leader Elamaram Kareem, CPI State secretary Binoy Viswam, and Kerala Congress (M) chairman Jose K. Mani, will end on July 1. Interestingly, Mr. Mani retained his position after his party defected from the UDF to the LDF.
How the CPI(M) and the Congress tactfully deal with their allies will add another layer of complexity to the coalition politics in Kerala. The Congress has already made an unsuccessful attempt to woo back the KC(M) into its fold.
Based on the strength of legislators in the State Assembly, as was the case with the previous State government, two seats will go in favour of the LDF, while the remaining one to the UDF.
IUML stance
The IUML leadership believes that it has already struck a pact on the lone winnable Rajya Sabha seat when the party sought a third seat on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections.
Although the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) has reluctantly accepted the proposal, the party’s Central leadership has not yet endorsed it. The Congress is concerned that its dominant partner, the IUML, would gain an upper hand in Rajya Sabha. At present, both the IUML and the Congress have a member each. The Congress may have to resort to political brinkmanship instead of yielding to the minority pressure tactics of the IUML, sources said.
Wayanad byelection question
However a victory for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi from both Wayanad and Rae Bareli in the Lok Sabha elections could provide the IUML with an opportunity to wrestle with the Congress for the Wayanad seat in the byelection. While it is almost a foregone conclusion that the party’s de facto chief will win again in Wayanad, a defeat in Rae Bareli would close that chapter.
In the case of the CPI(M), the party will have to take a call to accommodate its traditional partner, the CPI, and then offer the second seat to the KC(M). The CPI(M) is keen on retaining the support of the KC(M), which had significantly contributed to the LDF’s electoral success in the three-tier local body elections in 2020 and the Assembly elections in 2021.
