A LABOUR Government in Westminster could present opportunities for the SNP in Holyrood, an expert has argued.
Amid strong polling for Labour suggesting the party will form the next Westminster government, Dr Coree Brown Swan of Stirling University has said doing so may post a challenge for Anas Sarwar come the next Scottish elections in 2026.
Speaking at an event hosted by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, Dr Brown Swan said the baggage of governing may pose problems for Labour come the next Holyrood poll.
The politics lecturer said: “I think the campaign at this point has been focused on the potential of a Labour government, getting out the Tories and that’s what they’re saying on the doorsteps, that’s what they’ve been saying in conference speeches et cetera.
“However, what happens once they’ve done that, or if they do that? I think the increased success of the Labour Party might lead to increased scrutiny. We see Sarwar and Starmer very much in lock-step, presenting very much a united front.
“But there are significant policy differences between Scottish Labour and UK Labour and these are likely to emerge once you see a fully-fleshed manifesto and in the early years of a Labour government.”
Cracks are already showing between the leader of Scottish Labour and the shadow Scottish secretary on the issue of devolving more powers to Holyrood and the party’s newest MP Michael Shanks (below) has expressed support for repealing the two-child benefit cap which has been ruled out by Keir Starmer.
She argued that the constitutional question “remains important” for voters, adding: “We can think of a Labour government, whenever the next UK General Election takes place as facing very difficult decisions, and will that government promise some sort of constitutional reform, have that capacity to deliver that? Will it have the capacity to pay attention to Scotland and what Scotland’s policy priorities are?
“Maybe that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of UK politics but it probably matters in Scotland. And then we can look ahead to the 2026 Holyrood election.
“Labour will again make political capital out of Labour governments, Labour-led governments in Edinburgh, Cardiff and in London.
'Unpopular decisions'
“But this election will fall near the midpoint of a UK government, which might complicate the case made by Scottish Labour, which will have to defend its decisions, which might be quite unpopular, taken in the centre.
“So I think there’s both opportunities for Labour – they seem to be on the up, they seem increasingly confident of their ability to make that case, but there’s some real challenges that lay ahead.”
Another panellist predicted that the next General Election would have little relevance “in terms of the constitutional future of Scotland”.
Asked how will the UK Government react to the SNP’s new plan for independence, Oxford University professor Ciaran Martin said: “Whoever it is will immediately say ‘no’ and now will be in an unassailable legal position and, in my view, will suffer absolutely no political detriment from so doing.
“I think, personally and again the more expert fellow panellists may disagree, but I think in the grand scheme of history in terms of the constitutional future of Scotland, the 2024 General Election will likely prove largely inconsequential.
"It’s what happens in the full parliament or two parliaments after it that will be really important.”
