A referendum on constitutional reform to decentralise power in Kazakhstan this week after unprecedented turbulence could help President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev build political capital for a second term in the oil-rich country allied with Russia.
Kazakhs are expected to vote in favour of the reforms on Sunday, after a government media campaign that said the changes would make the vast Central Asian country of 19 million people more democratic.
Long prized for political stability by Western investors who have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into its energy and mining industries, Kazakhstan went through a deadly bout of unrest this year, including an attempted coup by top security officials.
The referendum is aimed at addressing the discontent that drove people to the streets in January, when protesters called for political reform, political analyst Dosym Satpayev said.
After quelling the January coup Tokayev sidelined his predecessor and former patron Nursultan Nazarbayev who had retained sweeping powers despite stepping down as president in 2019.
One of the reforms will strip Nazarbayev of his title of leader of the nation, a move that appears to enjoy broad support. Many Kazakhs have for several years been calling for change to a political system that concentrates power in the figure of president, Satpayev said.
"Tokayev understands this and that is why, to a certain degree, he tries to position himself using this referendum as a man who is trying to change something."
The 69-year-old president is widely expected to run for a second term when - or before - his current one ends in 2024. The referendum is in part "a rehearsal for the presidential election," Satpayev said, adding that Tokayev would see support for the amendments as a vote in his favour.
While the reforms will grant some powers to parliament and the re-established constitutional court, the proposed amendments largely leave the important levers in the hands of the president.
Tokayev has been criticised for seeking help from a Russia-led security bloc during the January crisis, thus bringing Kazakhstan even closer into Moscow's orbit on the eve of the Ukrainian crisis.
(Reorting by Mariya Gordeyeva; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel)
