Nate Cohn at the New York Times has also had a look at the latest polling figures, and has come to the conclusion that polling averages show “Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied across the seven battleground states considered likeliest to decide the presidency, with neither ahead by enough to count as even a modest favorite”.
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Joe Biden has a light schedule for today. At 11.45am, along with the first lady, he is expected to participate in a candle lighting event at the White House to mark the one-year anniversary of the 7 October attack in Israel. After his regular briefing he is then expected to be briefed on his administration’s response to Hurricane Helene and preparations for Hurricane Milton.
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Sidney Blumenthal, former senior adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, has written a lengthy piece for the Guardian today arguing that Donald Trump’s Hitlerian logic is no mistake but a deliberate ploy.
A report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s report, released on Monday, suggests that both candidates in the election are making promises that will increase US debt, but that it is Donald Trump’s proposals that are more expensive.
Tami Luhby reports for CNN:
The national debt would soar by trillions of dollars more regardless of who wins the election, further compounding the country’s fiscal problems. Kamala Harris’ plan would boost the debt by $3.5tn over the next decade, while Trump’s platform would cause it to spike by $7.5tn. The watchdog group’s analysis is the latest in a series of reviews of the candidates’ plans, which generally find that Trump’s proposals would have a bigger impact on the national debt than those of Harris.
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Kamala Harris has been warned that her bid to win the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania risks being undermined by her failure to connect with unionized blue-collar workers in the same way that Joe Biden historically has done.
Jonathan Kott, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide told the Hill website that the current president is a tough act for Harris to follow in that regard.
“Joe Biden is the most pro-union president ever,” he said. “He was the only president to be on a union picket line, he’s so over-the-top pro-union.”
Another Democratic strategist, Ray Zaccaro, told the website: “Biden has had a special relationship with labor throughout his entire career. I don’t think there’s anything particularly lacking in Harris’s position on labor, but there probably are some stylistic and relationship differences for her to overcome.”
Zaccaro warned: “There is a movement within the labor world that is more aligned with Maga, protectionism, nationalist identity,” adding that some union voters increasingly support “some of the messaging that the Trump campaign is putting out”.
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Florida governor Ron DeSantis has told residents of the state they have a couple of days to prepare before Hurricane Milton hits. He said: “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point.”
“You have time to prepare – all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” DeSantis said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”
AP reports DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road.
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Speaking at his rally in Juneau, Wisconsin, last night, former president Donald Trump said he was looking for a “mandate” victory in November’s election. The current polling is tight, suggesting that the outcome is unlikely to deliver that for either candidate.
CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten most recent round-up on the state of polling in the key swing states that will decide the election suggests that Kamala Harris has the edge in the Great Lake battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, while Trump is looking stronger in the southern sunbelt states.
However, Enten notes that all of the leads of one or two points in these states are “well within the margin of error and too close to call”.
As it stands he suggests Harris would end up with “276 electoral votes, slightly more than the 270 she needs to win”, but he said if the polls have underestimated Trump’s support – as they did in 2020 – then he could romp home. Likewise, if the polls are underestimating Democratic party support – as they did in 2022 – then she could even reach as many as 319 electoral votes. In a nutshell, all bets are off.
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Kamala Harris seeks to gain election edge over Donald Trump with media blitz
Kamala Harris has begun what has been described as a week-long media blitz with an appearance on Sunday night on the podcast Call Her Daddy.
During the interview with Alex Cooper, Harris addressed topics including abortion, reproductive healthcare, housing and student debt relief.
Harris said Trump’s repeated claim that Democrats support abortion “after birth” is a “lie”, and that it was insulting to claim that women in their ninth month of pregnancy are electing to have an abortion.
She also rebuked Arkansas governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who had suggested Harris “doesn’t have anything keeping her humble” because she doesn’t have children.
“I don’t think she understands that there are a whole lot of women out here who are not aspiring to be humble,” Harris said, adding: “We have our family by blood and then we have our family by love. And I have both.”
Harris said economic conditions hinder people having a family, and suggested her aim to build 3m new homes by the end of her first time would assist with that.
Harris said: “I think that most Americans want leaders who understand that the measure of their strength is not based on who you beat down. The real measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up.”
Cooper has made a point of also asking Trump on to the show if he wants to appear.
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Welcome and opening summary …
Welcome to our rolling coverage of the 2024 US presidential election campaign. Today both vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will attend ceremonies to mark the one year anniversary of the 7 October attack on Israel by Hamas. Harris is expected to speak at an event at the White House, while Trump will be appearing at a Florida golf course. Joe Biden will also mark the occasion with an event at the White House.
Here are the headlines …
Polling continues to show that November’s election is too close to call.
Kamala Harris appeared on the Call Her Daddy podcast on Sunday, discussing abortion, reproductive healthcare, housing and student debt relief.
Tim Walz said during an appearance on Fox News that Donald Trump’s agenda would destroy the US economy.
Donald Trump held a rally in Juneau, Wisconsin.
JD Vance has suggested a second Trump administration would defund Planned Parenthood.
The supreme court begins sitting again this week with the regulation of ghost guns and transgender rights on their agenda.
Florida is gearing up for what could be the biggest evacuations since 2017 as Hurricane Milton strengthens.
It is Martin Belam with you here to start with. You can get in touch with me at martin.belam@theguardian.com.
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