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Kamala Harris has a four-point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to a fresh poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
The polls were conducted from August 5 to 9, with 1,973 likely voters (around 650 from each state). Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, unveiled her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, on August 6.
The pair quickly hit the campaign trail in five battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This four-point edge, with Harris at 50 percent of the vote and Trump at 46 percent in all three states, is the most substantial lead that the Democrats have seen in this election cycle’s NYT/Siena polls. Previous polls have shown candidates in a tight match-up, or Trump in a slight lead.
Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are also significantly more satisfied with the current choice of candidates — across all party lines — than they were in May, before President Joe Biden bowed out of the race.
Democrat and Independent voters have seen the biggest jump in satisfaction, at +27 points and +15 points respectively, while Republicans are +5 percent more satisfied.
More optimism from Independent voters could be an important metric since Harris replaced Biden on the ballot. Overall, though, Independent voters across the three states are split over Harris versus Trump, with 47 percent currently in either camp.
This has shifted since the last poll of these states in May, when 48 percent of Independents were voting for Trump and 39 percent for Biden (who was still the presidential candidate).
Some 42 percent of white voters without a college education now say they will vote for Harris. While Trump still leads in this group (55 percent), this is a blow for the Republicans as it’s a key bastion of Trump supporters, and marks a 10-point boost for the Democrats from the same poll in May.
Democratic Senate candidates are also leading over Republicans in all three battleground states, with Elissa Slotkin taking a three-point lead in Michigan, incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin ahead by seven points ahead in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey surging ahead 14 points.
