After proving to be an asset for fantasy football owners in 2022, New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson is poised for even bigger and better things in 2023.
The 26-year-old racked up 42 catches, 508 yards and seven touchdowns last season, finishing as TE15 overall in full-point PPR. Those seven scores were the third most for a tight end, trailing only Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
Johnson really hit his stride from Week 6 on, when the Oregon product scored all of his touchdowns and averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, earning him TE8 overall in that span.
Making Johnson’s season even more impressive is the fact that he managed to be productive despite a mess under center. Jameis Winston wasn’t good in the three games he played, and Andy Dalton wasn’t any better.
Johnson has a much-improved situation at quarterback going into his fourth year after the Saints inked Derek Carr this offseason. Granted, Carr has his own flaws and is coming off a rough campaign himself, but he’s still an upgrade over Winston and Dalton.
The veteran signal-caller is no stranger to elevating tight ends to elite status in fantasy. In 2019 and 2020, Carr helped Darren Waller finish as TE4 and TE2, respectively.
Of course, nobody is ready to proclaim Johnson the next Waller, but the two players do have a similar athletic profile thanks to the former having played wide receiver in college like the latter did.
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Perhaps the biggest concern for Johnson is the expected increase in competition for targets.
Along with guys like wide receiver Chris Olave and running back Alvin Kamara (if he doesn’t get suspended), Johnson is set to also contend with veteran wideout Michael Thomas for looks.
That said, Thomas first has to prove he can actually stay on the field and play at a high level before his presence over the middle becomes a concern. And, even if he can return to at least some semblance of what he was, that may end up benefiting Johnson, as defenses won’t be able to focus in on him as much.
As promising as things look for him, chances are Johnson will fly under the radar in most drafts and won’t get the same attention his teammate, Taysom Hill, will get after a finish of TE9.
However, Hill is a riskier bet than Johnson this year for multiple reasons.
Again, assuming Kamara avoids a ban, Hill now has to contend with both he and free-agent acquisition Jamaal Williams near the goal line, an area where Hill thrived in 2022. Don’t forget about third-round pick, Kendre Miller, either.
If Hill sees a decline in goal-line work, he may just drop off the map entirely since the “tight end” doesn’t see much action through the air. There has been talk about Hill seeing more work as a receiver, but that has to be seen to be believed after he’s been almost completely ignored as a pass-catcher the last three years.
Fantasy football outlook
Even with the workload Hill had on the ground, he remained as inconsistent as they came and was capable of putting up a bagel just as easily as he was capable of winning a week.
And, lest we forget, Hill’s impressive finish from last season was inflated by a 34.1-point performance in Week 6, and so much as cutting that in half puts Hill behind Johnson for the year at TE16.
Johnson is a high-end TE2 on the road to becoming a TE1 and will provide tremendous value for fantasy owners who wait until the later rounds in drafts to address the position. Hill should be considered a TE2 for now, also, but is on much shakier ground.
