ALLEN PARK, Mich. — You know when the light turns yellow as you're nearing a high-speed intersection? In that moment, you're faced with a decision: You can hit the brakes or stay on the gas (maybe even giving it a little more), trying to clear the intersection before the light goes red.
There's actually a name for this traffic conundrum drivers routinely face — the dilemma zone. It feels like an appropriate comparison for the decision the Detroit Lions are facing at the quarterback position.
The Lions have a quarterback, a proven winner, under contract for two more seasons. And all season, while assessing the situation, we've been riding the waves of recency bias, trying to figure out whether Jared Goff can be the franchise's long-term solution or simply the bridge to what's next.
Currently, momentum is very much in Goff's favor. For the season, he's completing nearly 65% of his passes and is on pace to throw for nearly 4,300 yards and 27 touchdowns. The interceptions that plagued him early in the year have evaporated in recent weeks, with just one pick in the past six games. And most importantly, the Lions are winning, emerging victorious in four of their past five games.
"I feel like I am playing the best football of my career right now, and I’m starting to settle in a little bit," Goff said this week. (Offensive coordinator) Ben (Johnson) and I have a good thing going, and still a lot of work to do, and you can always improve and look at ways to get better, but I am comfortable and hope to continue that through the season."
Of course, with decisions about the future of the quarterback position, it's unwise to look at the situation through a narrow lens. So here's the big-picture view: Goff has shown he has what it takes to play at a Pro Bowl level and to lead a team to the Super Bowl, but there's also no denying his shortcomings in relation to his peers.
He's never been particularly accurate throwing the deep ball. On throws 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage this season, he's completed 14 of 42 (33.3%). Among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 20 such throws, Goff ranks 24th out of 30 on adjusted accuracy, which factors in drops. And that's actually better than last season. Going back further, he hasn't had an adjusted accuracy above 40% on deep throws since his last Pro Bowl campaign, in 2018.
When it comes to pressure, no quarterback deals with it particularly well, but it's worse with Goff. In 2022, his passer rating drops to 60.8 when disturbed in the pocket, which ranks 18th among 23 qualifying quarterbacks. And he's been at or below that rating when pressured for four of the past five seasons.
That's played a key role in his propensity for turnovers. Despite the recent run of clean play, Goff has still averaged more than a turnover per game during his career. And according to Pro Football Focus, he has committed a turnover-worthy play a career-worst 4.3% of his dropbacks this season, equating to 20 instances where he's either fumbled in the pocket or thrown an interceptable ball. That figure is third-most among QBs this season.
Finally — and it's something that's been increasingly apparent given Detroit's recent run of opponents — Goff lacks mobility in an era where the position is becoming defined by dual-threat passers.
Despite all those holes in the skill set, an increasingly strong case can be made to stay the course. The Lions are proving, just as the Los Angeles Rams did with Goff before, he is capable of leading a team to success when surrounded by the right pieces.
Look at Detroit's offensive production when the team's full arsenal of weapons has been at or near full strength. The Lions were leading the NFL in scoring through the first month of the season, and with DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds healthy against Jacksonville last Sunday, the team scored 40, coming away with points in eight straight possessions. What more could you want from the quarterback position than that level of efficiency?
Counting the cost
So, if pure production is a shrinking concern, general manager Brad Holmes' dilemma will come down to cost and ceiling.
As noted, Goff remains under contract for two more seasons, with cap hits of $30.7 million and $31.7 million, respectively. Given eight NFL quarterbacks have contracts averaging $40 million or more per season, it's actually reasonable value. But Goff is also nearing an extension, which, with inflation, will likely put him in that stratosphere.
Paying Goff a market-rate extension, potentially as early as next offseason, would actually create some immediate cap relief, but long-term, could make sustaining a competitive roster around him difficult. The team has several key pieces who will merit extensions in the coming years, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Jonah Jackson and potentially Jeff Okudah.
And, we already understand Goff has limitations, highlighted above. The Rams obviously were concerned enough about them that they shipped him to Detroit, along with a trio of premium draft picks, for Matthew Stafford. That move proved enough to get the franchise over the hump, winning last year's Super Bowl, before the wheels fell off the operation this year.
The Lions obviously aren't at the level of competitiveness the Rams were when they traded Goff, but that's the ultimate goal. So, we have to ask ourselves if an extension is just kicking the can down the road, assuming the franchise's rebuild goes according to plan.
The alternative to sticking with Goff for the long haul is drafting a quarterback. And the resource they'd likely be using to do that is the remaining first-round pick coming over from the Rams. That's currently projected to be the No. 4 selection in April, but could end up being higher, with Stafford effectively out for the season.
But who stands out from this class? Alabama's Bryce Young, who might go No. 1 overall, comes with legitimate size concerns at 6-feet, 195 pounds. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud has all the physical gifts, but faces a significant schematic adjustment at the next level and has bigger issues with pressure than Goff. And Kentucky's Will Levis, with a big frame and dual-threat ability, could be the next Josh Allen with proper development, but could just as easily bust with a lack of patience.
There isn't an Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence-type lock at the top of this class, furthering the Lions' case to stick with the horse they have.
Plus, by not drafting a quarterback with the first of the team's two first-round picks, the Lions are in position to add an elite defensive prospect such as Alabama's Will Anderson, Georgia's Jalen Carter or Clemson's Myles Murphy. That's clearly the more-glaring short-term need, seeing the team is still allowing more points and yards than anyone, even with some recent improvements.
The reality is this debate is going to rage on from now until April, and will pick back up ahead of the next draft, if the Lions bypass selecting a quarterback this go-around. That's the nature of the business, and opinions will undoubtedly ebb and flow with each Goff performance.
But for the moment, he continues to do enough to keep all but his harshest critics at bay. So, if Holmes opts for the brake pedal when it comes to the decision, no one should be surprised.
