USC quarterback Caleb Williams’ Heisman Trophy odds surged Saturday as he became the favorite (now -2500 ) following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, which plummeted the odds for Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud, the former frontrunner.
Good, he deserves to be at the top.
Williams was among the preseason Heisman favorites, and if you’ve watched him and the Trojans play throughout the 2022 season, it’s clear he should have consistently been toward the top. In September, we argued if he maintained his prolific pace, which he pretty much has, he would easily be a finalist, if not the winner. But just two weeks ago, he inexplicably wasn’t even among sportsbooks’ top-5 contenders.
Now, given the way the sophomore quarterback has performed under pressure in must-win situations as USC fought for a spot in the College Football Playoff, along with how some of his fellow Heisman contenders have faltered, it should be his trophy.
THIS THROW 😮🔥
Unreal arm talent by @CALEBcsw 👏 pic.twitter.com/yr2vzC9cSb
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 20, 2022
Regardless of how the Pac-12 championship game goes Friday against Utah, Williams surely has done enough to earn most of the Heisman votes.
This isn’t a recency-bias argument — though most of Williams’ competition has evaporated in recent weeks— and if you disagree, you haven’t watched him shine this season.
.@CalebCSW powers into the end zone for 6️⃣!
📺: FOX
📱: https://t.co/QwAZd9IYd4 pic.twitter.com/bvnGTkoKG7— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 20, 2022
.@CalebCSW delivers a STRIKE to @BrendenRice for the touchdown!
📺: @FS1
📱: https://t.co/u7u02qaID8#FightOn | #FYC13 pic.twitter.com/UOZQX8EOU1— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 12, 2022
Now, that’s not to say he’s been running away with it all season. Players like Stroud, Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye and Michigan running back Blake Corum have had largely stellar seasons too, and they all deserve to be in contention.
But Stroud and the Buckeyes haven’t faced the toughest competition, and in their biggest test of the season against Michigan, they failed big time. Maye has been an interesting combination of somehow a dark-horse but also a favorite, but back-to-back losses for the Tar Heels — including an overtime loss to N.C. State last week — don’t bode well for his hopes.
Although Corum is one of the best running backs in the country, he’s injured and was on the bench for most of the Wolverines’ win over Ohio State. He was already facing an uphill Heisman battle as a running back in a quarterback-heavy race and hasn’t been able to pad his stats.
Hooker should be Williams’ biggest competition, but he tore his ACL during the Volunteers’ shocking loss to South Carolina, ending his season. That’s absolutely awful for him as perhaps the most dynamic quarterback of 2022, but the injury will likely keep him from going to New York in December.
Which brings us back to Williams.
.@IamEricGentry said it best 😂 @CALEBcsw for #HE13MAN! pic.twitter.com/1kdAskkjow
— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) November 27, 2022
On the season so far, he’s thrown for 3,712 yards (No. 7 nationally) with a high of 470 against UCLA and 34 touchdowns (T-No. 6) — though his completion percentage is stuck at 65.8, thanks in part to four games where he didn’t crack 60 percent. He also has 10 rushing touchdowns, landing him among the top-10 for quarterbacks, and boasts a sixth-best 168.5 QB rating.
The Oklahoma transfer who followed Lincoln Riley to Southern California absolutely stunned Saturday in USC’s 38-27 win over Notre Dame, helping to keep the Trojans’ playoff dreams alive. Just like he did in the win over UCLA a couple weeks ago, and during the unexpected challenges from Cal and Arizona in the weeks before that.
Caleb Williams is a magician pic.twitter.com/F0COFOPCei
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 27, 2022
Against the Fighting Irish, Williams completed 18 of 22 passes, more than 80 percent, and threw for 232 yards and one touchdown while also running for 35 yards and three more scores.
But beyond stats, it’s the way Williams plays; the way he scrambles to extend plays and escape sack attempts, the way he slings it down the field, the way he scans his options even as his pocket collapses, the way he seems to so effortlessly sneak into the end zone himself. And he can punt!
More magic from Caleb Williams #USC pic.twitter.com/2zdSAteR8M
— Trevor Booth (@TrevorMBooth) November 27, 2022
He hasn’t been perfect this year with a small handful of down games. But when he’s on fire — along with several very talented USC receivers — it’s impossible to look away.
Williams is dazzling to watch with a magician-like style that’s sometimes reminiscent of Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray — which surely isn’t a coincidence considering all of them have showcased their talent in now-USC coach Riley’s offensive system. He’s brilliant on the ground and can seemingly predict gaps before they appear.
CALEB WILLIAMS STOP IT WE ARE NOT WORTHY STOP THE MADNESS 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/1KPzEu78Zr
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) November 27, 2022
Williams has thrown for at least 400 yards in two games (UCLA and Arizona), at least 340 yards in six and less than 200 yards in just two matchups (Oregon State and Washington State) — though USC won both those games anyway.
And even in the Trojans’ lone loss so far to then-No. 20 Utah, he could hardly be faulted, save for taking four sacks. Despite the one-point loss, Williams threw for five touchdowns and ran for 57 yards, including a jaw-dropping 55-yard dash.
So really, unless he completes almost no passes and frequently turns the ball over in a Pac-12 title loss — USC is currently a 2.5-point favorite — the Heisman Trophy should be his (and even then, there’d surely still be a strong argument in his favor).
If you don’t think Williams has earned it, you haven’t been paying attention.
