“We would introduce Dietmar Hamann for Steve Finnan. The German was detailed to hold the midfield together, allowing Steven Gerrard to make the bursts into the penalty area.”
As half time substitutions go, the move made by Rafa Benitez in Istanbul in 2005 (as detailed above, from his ‘Champions League Dreams’ book) must be one of the greatest ever. Gerrard scored and won a penalty by charging into the box while Hamann ensured Milan were no longer cutting through the heart of the Reds’ side.
It was a better impact than Benitez could have realistically expected and most managers who make a switch at the interval are almost making an admission of guilt. If their starting XI needs amending so early, chances are it wasn’t the correct side to have selected in the first place.
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Injuries can play a part too, of course, but this wasn’t the case in Liverpool’s goalless draw at Crystal Palace on Saturday. It was Naby Keita who received the half time hook, with his paragraph in the post-match ratings summing up his performance: “Lost the ball too many times first half and sailed close to wind with a number of fouls after an earlier booking.”
It was not the first occasion the Guinean has suffered this fate either. He was withdrawn in the first half of a 3-1 loss at Real Madrid two years ago and didn’t make it past the interval of the infamous 7-2 mauling against Aston Villa either.
When Keita was replaced by Harvey Elliott at Selhurst Park, it was the eighth half time switch Jurgen Klopp has made in the league this season. Wolverhampton Wanderers have made the most, with 10, while Chelsea, Manchester United and Southampton have nine apiece (and Leeds also have eight). From those sides, only Liverpool’s fierce rivals, who visit Anfield on Sunday, could be said to be having a better than expected campaign at this point. Early changes do not tend to bode well.
The results broadly bear this out for the Reds. They were already 5-0 up against Bournemouth when Fabio Carvalho came on for Elliott, but none of the other five league matches which began the second half with a substitution have been won. The Reds have drawn with Everton and Brighton (as well as Palace), before losing at Arsenal and Brentford. We can add cup defeats to Napoli and Manchester City to the pile if we look at other competitions too.
It’s hard to assess what impact the changes had. If we disregard the 9-0 against the Cherries, only one of the second halves was ‘won’, with Liverpool scoring twice and conceding once against Brighton to finish with a 3-3 tie. Half-time sub Luis Diaz assisted an equaliser within eight minutes of coming on in that match, illustrating the benefit having players of his quality on the bench can have.
There’s also the game state to consider, with the Reds often trailing at half time when making a personnel switch from the bench immediately afterwards. This makes it almost inevitable that the statistics will tip in their favour irrespective of any tactical changes, as they try to get back into the match against teams happy to protect their lead.
But let’s look at how the underlying numbers changed when the game was even, in the two goalless draws. At Goodison Park, Liverpool went from a -0.41 expected goal difference in the first half to +0.88 after the break, while at Selhurst Park the figures were -0.02 and +0.22 respectively.
By this measure, the changes worked; whether they worked to a large enough degree is another matter, and ultimately four points were dropped in those games. Klopp will certainly be hoping he doesn’t have to make another half time substitution any time soon.
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