This post will be frequently updated with the latest information on Juan Soto's free agency. Last updated: Dec. 3 at 8:21 p.m. ET.
Last MLB offseason, all eyes were on Shohei Ohtani. This offseason, it's Juan Soto.
Every winter, several interesting free agents become available for teams to court and attempt to add to their roster in a quest to improve their odds of the ultimate goal: Winning a World Series.
While some free agents fit more in the category of situational additions—like teams looking for more hitting from a particular side, or help at a specific defensive position—there are players who are show-stoppers: You add them if you have the chance to no matter how they fit your roster now and figure the rest out later.
Soto is one of those players. And much like Ohtani, his free agency will be a massive domino in regards to free agency at large. Teams interested in spending on Soto will have lots of money to spend in their budget, but only once they learn they're definitely out of the running on Soto.
So, in this guide—which will be updated frequently with the latest information—let's start there: How much will Soto cost the winning team?
Juan Soto Favorites: It's Unclear
"At this point, we don't know who the favorites are," Jeff Passan swooped in and reported on Dec. 4 after plenty of shoddy reports back and forth about various teams in the running having a lead. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers are, "still in it," as of Friday.
Jeff Passan on Juan Soto:
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 5, 2024
"We know at this point that the final number is going to be at least $600 million... We could see a contract potentially in excess of $700 million."
"We will know (Soto's decision), at latest, by the time the Winter Meetings in Dallas start (Dec. 9)." pic.twitter.com/yKSPJ4q9nN
Juan Soto Contract Value: How Much Will He Earn on New Deal?
Short answer: Likely anywhere between $600 million and $700 million.
Several factors play into how much a player can earn on his contract in a salary cap-less world. How good is the player? How old are they? What length of deal are they looking for? How is the contract structured?
Soto sits in the top tier of players that can essentially ask for "the new record": A deal that bests the previous high-water mark. That would put him above Aaron Judge, who played the first year of his new contract with the Yankees in 2024. Asked if the team captain would be content with that inequity, Judge said, "It ain't my money, I really don't care as long as we get the best players."
Jon Heyman reported on October 31 that Soto was seeking a $700 million deal. That raw value would be the same as the one Ohtani landed on last winter with the Los Angeles Dodgers, however, Ohtani's deal is unique and largely deferred (it pays Ohtani even after his playing years with the Dodgers are expected to be over). The present value of Ohtani's contract when signed last offseason was around $337 million. Taking into other factors, it has been described as a value closer to $430 million.
Heyman later reported Soto's deal, "could reach $600 million," but did not write off a $700 million contract. It sounds as if Soto is not interested in a largely deferred deal, presumably desiring his annual payout to be close to the AAV of the contract itself. On Nov. 27, Heyman reported that Soto is seeking a 15-year deal.
Later, most reporting and insider speculation has been around a very high AAV and a contract length anywhere from 12-14 years. Jack Curry of YES reported that the deal is likely to exceed Ohtani's $46 million per year. That would put it in a range of $564 million to $658 million if he beats Ohtani's AAV by just $1 million.
On Dec. 4, ESPN's Jeff Passan said the, "final number is going to be at least $600 million dollars over a double digit figure number of years." He said it was possible it could go in excess of $700 million.
Surely, some team may offer him the $700 million he and his agent, Scott Boras, seek, but that may not be Soto's final decision. Players routinely take pay cuts for situations they view as more favorable, and all indications are Soto heavily values a setting that will give him lots of chances at the playoffs. Soto is also looking for a deal with opt-outs, a factor that seemingly pushed the Yankees to revise their opening offer to him, possibly to push back against their division rivals, the Boston Red Sox upping the aggression of their pursuit.
Juan Soto Free Agency Timeline: When Will He Make Decision?
Scott Boras, Soto's free agent, said in early November the decision will not be soon. He cited an abnormally large number of interested parties that Soto and Boras want to vet fully.
Many have speculated the Winter Meetings to be the most likely time for a deal to get done. Those take place Dec. 8-12.
Boras later (in a press conference related to one of his other clients on Dec. 3) said though no decision is imminent for Soto, the outfielder will soon start eliminating teams from contention for his services. It is not yet clear which teams are finalists.
Then, on Dec. 4, Passan reported that more meetings will take place over the weekend of Dec. 7/8 and, "at that point, Juan Soto will decide where he's going to go and we will know at latest, by the time the Winter Meetings in Dallas start."
On Nov. 26, The Athletic's Brendan Kuty confirmed that the schedule of offer rounds appears to position the finality of negotiations around the general timeframe of the Winter Meetings. Jon Morosi confirmed that in a report on Dec. 2, saying, "we will know where Juan Soto is going in the next 10 days."
Juan Soto Meetings: Every Team Reported to Have Met With Juan Soto
Here is a look at every team reported to have met with Soto to this point.
Offers
On Monday, Nov. 26, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that five teams have made official offers to Soto: The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. No word on whether or not the Phillies, who were at one point expected to meet with Soto, have made an offer.
The Athletic's Brendan Kuty reported that there are expected to be, "multiple rounds," of offers for Soto.
It was reported on Dec. 2 that the Toronto Blue Jays are expected by some to have the highest offer for Soto.
On Dec. 2, Yankees insider Jack Curry reported the Yankees, "feel they've made this a priority," and, "have put their best foot forward. And they say that they are comfortable with whatever decision he ends up making because they feel that they have sent the message to him they want him in New York."
Previously, Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy publicly committed hard to the idea of handing out a massive contract to Soto even though the team has major money invested in Rafael Devers.
First Meetings
Soto met with the Boston Red Sox on Nov. 14, the first team reported to have met with him. Soto was said to be impressed with the presentation Boston brass put on, and inquired about three specific items.
Soto then met with the Toronto Blue Jays on Nov. 15, another meeting described as "impressive".
The most recent team to meet with Soto was the New York Mets on Nov. 16. He met with them on Saturday, and the Queens contingency was described as "hopeful" coming out of the meeting.
It has been speculated the New York Yankees meeting happened on Monday, Nov. 18. Team owner Hal Steinbrenner confirmed he and team officials traveled to Calif. to meet with Soto and said he was a, "priority."
"He's definitely a significant part of why we got to the World Series. I've got ears. I know what's expected of me," Steinbrenner said to the press. He said that in addition to himself, general manager Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, and a few other front office members attended. Bob Klapisch of NJ Advance Media reported that Soto sought confirmation from Steinbrenner and the Yankees' entourage that the team would be improved year after year.
Mark Feinsand reported that the Dodgers will meet with Soto on Tuesday, Nov. 18. Alden González of ESPN confirmed it. Feinsand also reported Soto has spoken with, "at least," one other team beyond the ones that have been reported, suggesting the Giants, Phillies, and Rays were all possibilities.
Jon Heyman reported on Tuesday, Nov. 19 that the Phillies plan to meet with Soto at some point.
Second Meetings
No one has received a follow-up meeting yet, but Passan reported more meetings would occur this upcoming weekend, Dec. 7 and 8.
It's unclear if Soto will actually meet with teams a second time or just hold one meeting with each team that he shares mutual introductory interest with.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Juan Soto Free Agency: New Earlier Timeline Revealed on Decision, Everything to Know.
