ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — So here’s a crazy thought:
Now that Miguel Cabrera has joined the 3,000-hit club, guess who the odds say could be next in line for one of baseball’s ultimate milestones?
Robinson Cano? He once looked like a sure bet, but suspensions, the pandemic and age have reduced his chances considerably. Yadier Molina? Joey Votto? Nelson Cruz? Too close to retirement. Jose Altuve and Freddie Freeman have a shot, but they’re both 32 and are still more than 200 hits away from 2,000.
So does that mean we could be in for the long haul? That, because of a variety of circumstances, an entire generation may pass before we see someone get 3,000 hits again?
Does that really put Wander Franco on the list of favorites?
It sounds nutty but, according to the analysts at Fangraphs, it’s not that outlandish. Based on Dan Szymborski’s historically-based ZiPS projections, Franco’s chances for 3,000 hits were at 7% by the time 2021 finished. That justifiably makes him a longshot, but it was still better odds than Mike Trout had at the end of last season. Or Mookie Betts. Or Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.
The case for Franco is pretty straightforward. This type of talent does not just walk into a dugout every day. Certainly not at this age. Two months past his 21st birthday, Franco already has 102 hits and a career batting average of .299. At a similar point in their careers, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays had around 150 hits and were hitting in the .270 range.
Pete Rose, who would go on to become baseball’s all-time hits leader with 4,256, was still playing for the Macon Peaches at this age. Derek Jeter had 11 career hits and a .234 batting average for the Yankees.
So, yeah, if we’re talking about career launches, Franco is in pretty rare company. But projections, of course, are easier to come by than hits.
There have been slightly more than 100 players who finished their age-20 season with as many hits as Franco had last year. Only nine of them went on to get 3,000 hits.
What happened to the other 90 or so players?
Take your pick. Injuries, scandal, death. Some players just faded away, never to regain their early promise. Others, like Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Johnny Bench, Frank Robinson and Eddie Mathews, went on to Hall of Fame careers but still fell short of 3,000 hits.
In other words, talent alone will not get you there. If you’re measuring by OPS (slugging percentage plus on-base percentage), the greatest hitters in history were Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg and Rogers Hornsby. None of them got to 3,000 hits.
Williams lost more than 700 games to military service and Bonds’ career ended prematurely in a cloud of controversy over suspected use of performance-enhancing drugs. Foxx’s career was cut short by health and alcohol problems, and Gehrig was famously felled by amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
A hitter’s profile can also be a factor in the chase. Williams, Bonds, Ruth and Rickey Henderson were clearly talented enough and played long enough to get 3,000 hits, but they all had remarkably keen eyes at the plate. They are the only four players in history to draw more than 2,000 walks in their careers, which boosted their on-base average but cut into their hit totals.
So where does Franco fit in all of this?
Szymborski’s projections, which came out last September, gave Altuve and Freeman roughly a 30% chance. Young stars Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all came in between 11 and 20%. Franco was next in line.
Naturally, that doesn’t mean he will make it there. Predicting a player’s career 20 years down the road is clearly a fool’s game.
But knowing the Rays have signed Franco to a potential 12-year deal means Tampa Bay fans could have a front-row seat as history is played out in front of them day after day and year after year.
