ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Here we go, it’s the Braves and Rays. A sneak preview of the matchup that October craves.
They have been, far and away, the two best teams of the season’s first 90 games, and there is nothing standing between them and the World Series.
Except, maybe, Tampa Bay’s battered rotation.
And a thin bullpen.
And an offense in decline.
And the Orioles.
OK, that sounds way more negative than necessary, but you get the gist. After nearly three months of the best baseball Tampa Bay has ever seen, the Rays (57-33) have been in a bit of a funk lately. They’ve lost more games than they’ve won the past four weeks, and Atlanta (58-28) has since claimed the best record in Major League Baseball.
Now, there are legitimate reasons for Tampa Bay’s malaise. The Rays went on back-to-back West Coast road trips in June, for instance. And three-fifths of their starting rotation is currently on the injured list. And there was no way the offense was going to continue scoring 6.8 runs a game the way it did in April.
When you think about it, the palpitations caused by a mini-slump might be the best way to explain how good the Rays were for such a long time. They have been in first place since opening day, a total of 99 days which is the longest continuous stretch in franchise history.
They have four All-Stars, and you could make a case for perhaps three others. They are on pace to set a franchise record for victories and the computer models at Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and baseballreference.com all say Tampa Bay’s odds of making the playoffs are somewhere between 98.6 and 99.3%.
All in all, the first half of the season was about as wondrous as it gets.
Unless you’re a Braves fan. They’ve taken wondrous to a new level in the past month.
Atlanta has lost five games in the last five weeks, and four of those were by one run. They are winning games like a Little League team playing in the wrong age group. Since May 31, they have outscored opponents 209-118. They are just ahead of the Rays in runs scored per game (5.66 to 5.54) and just behind in runs allowed (3.95 to 3.84).
And, like the Rays, they’ve thrived despite missing some of their top starting pitchers. Max Fried (forearm strain) and Kyle Wright (shoulder) went 35-12 last season but are only 2-2 in 2023. And still, the Braves are on pace to win 109 games.
Even more worrisome, if you’re inclined to compare the two teams, is Atlanta seems more dynamic. Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri are tied for the lead in home runs in Tampa Bay with 16. That would lump them in fifth place with Austin Riley behind Matt Olson (29), Ozzie Albies (22), Ronald Acuna Jr. (21) and Marcell Ozuna (17) in Atlanta. If they can maintain it, the Braves’ OPS of .842 would be the highest in the National League since 1930.
Of course, these numbers do not guarantee a thing once the postseason begins. The Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East in 2022, and then lost the best-of-five division series. And a three-game series between the Rays and Braves in July will likely be forgotten once October rolls around.
Still, it’s worth wondering if the Rays are simply going through an inevitable rough patch or whether a screeching warning bell should be waking up downtown St. Pete. I’d suggest reality is somewhere in the middle.
The Rays are better than their current 10-14 skid, but they have some holes to fill if they plan on winning the final game of 2023. The bullpen is better than most, and provided 11 innings of strong work against the Phillies Thursday night, but it’s not quite lockdown. According to Fangraphs calculations, Tampa Bay’s relief corps is No. 27 in a 30-team league. I’m not sure those numbers coincide with actual performance, but it is an indication this bullpen could use some reinforcements beyond the expected return of Andrew Kittredge later this month.
And while the starting rotation remains the team’s strength, the Rays are one more injury away from some serious flop sweat. Acquiring another starting pitcher may be the difference between World Series rings or wearing a lifetime of regret.
Will this weekend’s games in front of quasi-sold-out crowds at Tropicana Field tell us anything useful about what’s to come? Probably not. Whether the Rays hit the All-Star break on a mini roll or in the throes of the season’s worst slump, decisions will still need to be made.
All that’s at stake is memories yet to come.
