POLLING expert Sir John Curtice has argued that another independence referendum will happen – because “the Union is in trouble”.
The professor told the New Statesman that he believes a fresh vote on the issue will be held, despite the Supreme Court finding that Holyrood requires Westminster’s permission to stage a referendum.
However, Curtice acknowledged that getting to a ballot “may be quite a while” away.
The political scientist, who is a professor at the University of Strathclyde, explained his reasoning.
“Half the public want out,” he said. “If you want to save the Union, you have to change public opinion, but making the case means explaining why Brexit is to Scotland’s advantage. Good luck!”
Curtice also said that another EU referendum could happen – but that might be more like two decades away yet.
He thinks the verdict in both votes will be determined by demographic change.
“It’s older people who are in favour of the Union, and who were in favour of Brexit,” he explained.
“You can already see the people who couldn’t vote in 2016 are very strongly in favour [of Remain]. Today’s middle-aged people will have to be persuaded, or these things will become decidedly unpopular.”
Elsewhere in the interview, the professor reflected on the major challenges facing the Conservatives in the polls – who are already around 20 points behind.
“The economic position looks terrible,” he argued. “We’re back to the 1970s, concertina-ed into 12 months. We have industrial unrest, high inflation, fiscal crisis, a dramatic fall in living standards – oh, and by the way, even though we’ve got record taxation and public spending, the service levels are crap.”
Still, Curtice isn’t certain that the next General Election would result in a Blair-style victory for Keir Starmer.
“The electoral system is not operating in Labour’s favour, so even a 20-point lead may not get you to Blair landslide territory,” he said.
