PROFESSOR Sir John Curtice has offered his view on whether Zack Polanski can win the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
It's a key target seat for the English Greens, having been vacated by the resignation of former prime minister Keir Starmer.
It has become a major battleground between Labour and the Greens, with new PM Andy Burnham having benefitted from what pollsters describe as the "Burnham bounce", which has dented Green momentum south of the Border.
At a fringe event hosted by cross-party think tank Demos at the Green conference in Brighton, leading pollster Curtice gave a presentation to party members, showing how Burnham's comparatively positive support compared to his predecessor has directly impacted on the Greens.
For example after Zack Polanski became leader, Westminster polling for the party went from around 9% to 15%, peaking around April this year. However, since then, the party's support has been in decline.
Curtice showed slides demonstrating that Labour's benefit from Burnham has resulted in lower polling for the Greens.
It's a message that fits with Polanski's earlier speech at conference, in which he argued that his party's left-leaning, socially progressive policies and campaigning have led to the UK Government repositioning itself on areas like its approach to Palestine.
While Polanski and his colleagues can claim those policy wins, they have ultimately led to Labour appearing more like the Greens, resulting in Burnham being, as Curtice put it, a "more formidable opponent".
Asked by a party member what Polanski's chances are going into this Thursday's vote, Curtice told the room: "Well look, the arithmetic is this.
"If you look at what happened in the constituency on May 7, and you include in the Green vote, the vote for the Camden Alliance candidates, and Andrew Feinstein's campaign, you were about four points behind Labour at the time.
"Now since then, Labour's votes in the polls has gone up, yours has gone down. So basically if you do succeed in winning the by-election, I'm not saying you won't, but if you do succeed it will be regarded as a very substantial shot at Westminster."
Meanwhile, Green peer and former party leader Natalie Bennett stressed the importance of getting supporters out to vote.
It's a message that has been plastered across the party conference, with high-profile figures frequently encouraging members to go to Holborn and campaign over the weekend.
Polanski left the conference on Friday evening for campaigning duties and it is understood he will not be returning to Brighton before the end of the event on Sunday.
"One of the things that's obvious compared to Gorton and Denton is there's not the same level of excitement," Bennett said, reflecting on the successful Green by-election win from Hannah Spencer earlier this year.
"In Gorton and Denton people were energised to stop Reform. We haven't got the same thing there, but we've got the possibility. So go and campaign."
Meanwhile, Polanski said on Friday that the party is united on the issue of Gaza amid a row over a motion due to be heard this weekend, aiming to recognise Zionism as a form of racism.
Senior figures, including former MP Caroline Lucas and ex-leader Adrian Ramsay, have already warned the motion – which is still subject to internal Green Party processes before it could be debated – would be divisive.
Asked about the thrust of the motion, Green Party leader Polanski told the BBC: “Well, this is in a context where 75,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, 1,500 since the recent so-called ceasefire.
“We also know there are more child amputees than in modern history.
“So I think what the party is absolutely united on is recognising we need to end the genocide, we need to stop selling arms to Israel.”
Asked if he believed Zionism is racist, Polanski replied: “Well, in the motion, it is defined as the displacement and genocide of the Palestinian people. I think that is clearly racism.
“I don’t think anyone could argue with that and, as I’ve said, we’ve seen so many innocent people die.”
The Green leader was then pressed on whether that made the majority of British Jews – who define themselves as Zionists – racist.
Polanski told the BBC: “I think it’s about how you define Zionism, and if your Zionism is the displacement of the Palestinian people, then that’s clearly racist, and I say that as a Jewish leader of a political party.
“What my focus is on, though, is what materially can we do to make a difference, and that’s stop selling arms to Israel, stop sharing intelligence, and boycott, divestment, sanctions.”
Polanski said he was “calling for an amendment” to the motion, which calls for one Palestinian state, “because what I want to see is equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians”.
