JOHN Curtice has issued a “health warning” to the exit poll that predicted the SNP could be reduced to fewer seats than Nigel Farage’s Reform.
The polling expert, who helped oversee the exit poll for the BBC, Sky and ITV, said researchers could have “underestimated” John Swinney’s party in their research which forecast the SNP to take just 10 seats.
Curtice, a professor at Strathclyde University, said it was possible that the SNP may perform better than expected against a resurgent Scottish Labour – but did not address concern the exit poll overstated Tory fortunes north of the Border.
Analysis of the exit poll conducted by ITV said the party would scoop up six seats from the SNP – a prospect Scottish Tory sources have reportedly dismissed.
Speaking on the BBC, Curtice said: “It’s already been emphasised from the beginning of the night, inevitably we have fewer sampling points in Scotland than elsewhere.
“It does look as though the SNP have done particularly badly but remember there are lots of seats in Scotland which are marginal between Labour and the SNP and […] even if we’ve just underestimated relative to Labour by a little bit, then that SNP number will go up.”
And he addressed the bombshell prediction that Reform, led by Farage (above), could become the fourth-largest party at Westminster, three seats ahead of the SNP.
Curtice said: “Basically what we have got in the exit poll is a lot of places where there is a small that Reform will win the seat, where we’re talking about 20-30% chance and we add up these probabilities and that’s how we get to the figure 13.
“But to be honest the figure could end up being quite a lot less than that, or indeed, rather more, depending on how the cookie crumbles.”
He added: “So those are the health warnings, behind all of this does look as though Sir Keir Starmer is going to be the prime minister tomorrow.
“He’s probably going to have a very substantial overall majority and that of course is the crucial thing we’re trying to find out.”
