POLLING expert John Curtice has given his verdict on the significance of the historic meeting which saw the three devolved leaders sign an agreement to put pressure on Westminster over independence.
SNP leader John Swinney, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill signed the memorandum of understanding during a meeting in Cardiff on Monday morning.
Along with Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald, who is the leader of the opposition in the Irish Dáil, the leaders called on the UK Government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change”.
The group, who met in their capacity as party leaders – rather than as officials in their respective governments – also stated their ambitions for partnership around the economy, energy and international co-operation.
Asked about the significance of the meeting – which has led to a huge amount of attention worldwide – Curtice said it was “mostly symbolic and performative”.
“I’m not sure it has any immediate substantive implications. I’m not convinced that it moves the political dial to a great significant extent,” the University of Strathclyde professor said.
“It’s a good way of illustrating the fact that the United Kingdom has three devolved administrations, all of which are run by people who would like no longer to be part of the UK.”
He added: “They weren’t explicit in their statement, but the implication of that statement is that they basically agreed that each of them should be able to make their own decisions about when to hold a referendum.”
“It will be interesting to see whether any common strategies on those subjects actually emerge.”
Curtice went on to say that the challenge facing the nationalist movement “hasn’t changed”.
“It is to persuade at least 60% of people in Scotland that independence would be a good idea, and doing that means winning the economic argument,” he said.
“The first thing they have to do, and they haven’t been able to do ever since Sturgeon resigned, or even before that, is to get the debate going.”
The pollster added: “The challenge to the nationalists is to get the dial up, and the challenge is to persuade people with the economics.”
That being said, Curtice described the meeting as a “brilliant piece of PR”. “They’ve done brilliantly in terms of PR, the attention it has got. A very successful piece of PR,” he said.
“[But] it doesn’t seem to me it’s going to change the pressure on the UK Government.”
