POLLING expert Professor John Curtice has given his verdict on how Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill may impact the timing of the next General Election.
The Prime Minister is facing a new year showdown over his immigration policy after right-wing Tory MPs said they could vote it down if it is not tightened.
Sunak won a crunch vote on Tuesday on the Safety of Rwanda Bill after spending the day in talks with potential rebels to avoid a defeat on his flagship “stop the boats” pledge.
During an interview with the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, Curtice was asked where the bill “needs to go” for Sunak to choose when the next Westminster election might be.
He said: “The honest truth is that given the Government is still nearly 20 points behind in the opinion polls, I think even if this bill were to be defeated or to be significantly amended, this Government is not in the position to deploy the threat of going to the country.
“Going to the country at the moment would probably look like a suicide mission.”
MPs approved the bill at second reading by 313 votes to 269, giving the UK Government a winning majority of 44.
Although dozens abstained, no Tory MP voted against the bill. Following the result, Rishi Sunak tweeted: “The British people should decide who gets to come to this country – not criminal gangs or foreign courts.
“That’s what this bill delivers. We will now work to make it law so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats.”
Elsewhere on the BBC show, Curtice said the vote was a “safer win than some of the speculation anticipated”.
He added the “problem” right-wing Tory MPs had was whether or not they would be able to put anything forward that “both they and the opposition parties will be willing to vote for”.
Curtice also said where the Government had to worry was if opposition parties or the House of Lords started to craft amendments that appealed to “more centrist Conservative MPs”.
