JOHN Curtice has given his verdict on a new poll which found that most Scots think a second independence referendum should take place in the next decade or sooner.
The research, carried out by pollsters Norstat for Believe in Scotland, found that 56% of Scots said that indyref2 should come before 2036.
This included 27% believing there should be another referendum in the next year or two years, 21% saying it should come in the next three to five years while 8% said in the next six to 10 years.
Meanwhile, 13% of people said there should be another vote more than 10 years from now, while 20% said there should never be another referendum and 11% said they did not know.
In total, that means 69% of Scots agree there should be a second Scottish independence referendum at some point in the future.
Meanwhile, on the question of independence and among those likely to vote – 52% said they would vote Yes while 48% said they would oppose it.
Reacting to this poll, Curtice – a leading pollster and professor at the University of Strathclyde – said that it was largely “bang in line” with the average of the recent polls, referring specifically to the 52 to 48 split.
He added: “It's a sheer matter of arithmetic, therefore, that a significant proportion who voted for the Unionist parties are current supporters of Yes.”
Curtice also said that support for holding another referendum within five years would probably be lower if the question were asked differently in the poll, but said it demonstrates the same “basic point” which is that he believes that many Yes supporters evidently favour another referendum in principle, but are less keen on holding one soon.
“You know, insofar as it's all tied up with the argument about whether the laws in Scotland should be the same as those in Northern Ireland, I don't think you can argue that 52-48 – even if it's absolutely bang on true – is going to be sufficient evidence to persuade the Secretary of State that it's clear that Scotland would vote in favour,” he said.
“The problem we've got is that we've got a stalemate, right, and neither the Unionists nor the nationalists can be sure what the outcome of a referendum would be.”
Curtice added: “The Unionists don't want to concede one because they can only lose out by it.
“The case would be a lot stronger if it was 62% rather than 52%.”
