POLLING expert Sir John Curtice has delivered his verdict on a new poll which showed Labour’s drop in support in Scotland since the Budget.
New figures from Norstat revealed that backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has fallen to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a government were the numbers replicated at the 2026 Holyrood election.
Figures revealed that Labour would have 29 MSPs, falling short of the level needed to form a government.
In the constituency ballot, Labour’s support has fallen seven points to 23% – the lowest level since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation – while it also fell six points to 22% on the regional list.
The SNP meanwhile were put on 33% support in the constituency ballot and 29% on the regional list – which would give them a projected 51 MSPs.
The survey also showed Nigel Farage’s Reform could do well, with 11% in both the constituency and regional ballot, with Curtice saying this could potentially give them as many as 12 MSPs.
Speaking to the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme, Curtice said: “I mean this fits the broader message of the opinion polls across the UK.
“Labour Party are running on average at around 29%, let’s say it again – just 29%. That’s six points down on the very low figure that they got in the General Election.
“All the evidence is that basically Labour’s success both north and south of the Border essentially rested on, certainly wanting to reject the Conservatives and equally north of the Border rejecting the SNP.”
Curtice further added that Labour are now discovering “grappling with the difficulties of office”.
He added: “Those difficulties were very clearly illustrated in a Budget which despite the claims during the election campaign that they will be able to avoid the difficulties on the fiscal finances through pursuing growth and we now discover that the prospects of growth are not now good.
“The reaction from the public is certainly modest at best.”
He added that the Labour Party might be particularly worried about the fact that the polling showed people couldn’t rely on the party to “keep its promises”.
