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John Clay

John Clay: Kentucky basketball can win it all, if it handles all the ifs

Jerry Claiborne, Kentucky's football coach in the 1980s, had a response for anyone who mentioned what might or should have happened.

"That's that old iffin' game," Claiborne would say.

Little about Kentucky basketball's 83-72 win over Ole Miss on Tuesday changed the belief these Wildcats are national title contenders as we head toward Saturday's regular-season finale at Florida. That said, for John Calipari's club to cut down the nets in New Orleans, some "iffin" questions must be answered.

Kentucky can win it all . . .

If the Cats can stay healthy. TyTy Washington's play Tuesday was encouraging. A nagging ankle problem caused the freshman to miss two games. Upon returning, he wasn't himself in UK's 75-73 loss last Saturday at Arkansas. TyTy did more TyTy things against the Rebels. He scored 14 points with four assists and three steals.

Same for Sahvir Wheeler. An injured wrist sidelined the point guard for two games, as well. Tuesday, Wheeler scored 16 points, dished seven assists and drilled two three-pointers. Over his last two games, Wheeler is 4-of-7 from behind the arc.

If the Cats can keep cooking on offense. This is an elite offensive team. Since Calipari took over the program in time for the 2009-10 season, UK has shot 60 percent or better five times against SEC opponents. Two of those have happened this season — 67.9 vs. Tennessee on Jan. 15, and 60.0 vs. Ole Miss on Tuesday.

Kentucky is No. 2 nationally in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. Consider this: Heading into the 2021 NCAA Tournament, eventual national champ Baylor ranked No. 3 in kenpom's efficiency numbers. Runner-up Gonzaga ranked No. 1.

If the Cats tighten up on defense. Ole Miss shot 50 percent Tuesday, the fourth UK foe this season to make half their shots. The Rebels were 15-of-30 the first half and 14-of-28 the second. According to Ken Pomeroy's analytics, Kentucky is 23rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. That's good, but could always be better. (Baylor entered the tourney at No. 44 last year.)

If Oscar keeps being Oscar. That would be Oscar Tshiebwe. Calipari said his 6-foot-9 center got bullied by the Rebels. Yet Tshiebwe still finished with 18 points and 15 rebounds for his 23rd double-double. He's one behind Julius Randle's Cal era best of 24 in 2014-15. Can Oscar continue this ridiculous pace? We've been given no reason to think he can't.

If the Cats get contributions off the bench. Davion Mintz and Jacob Toppin have been important reserves all season. But we're talking Daimion Collins' 10 points and six rebounds at Alabama; Dontaie Allen's 18 important minutes against Mississippi State; Bryce Hopkins' 13 points and four rebounds against LSU; Lance Ware's four points and seven rebounds against Florida. Every tournament run has an unexpected hero.

If the Cats can execute in close games. Those have been few and far between. UK is just 1-3 in games decided by five points or less. The three losses were all on the road — 66-62 at Notre Dame; 65-60 at LSU and 75-73 at Arkansas. The Cats led the Hogs 70-69 with 2:20 left but failed to finish. One thing we know: The Big Dance will be filled with nail-biters.

If the Cats get a good draw. That may be even more important this year, given the lack of a dominant team. For the first time in AP poll history, the top six teams all lost on the same day last Saturday. Murray State is the only team in college basketball with fewer than three defeats. The Racers are 28-2.

Matchups will be at a premium. These Cats love to run, but can they win at a slowdown pace? What about foul trouble? What about a night when the shots aren't falling? Survive and advance involves lots of scenarios.

Ah, but Kentucky does have the one essential ingredient to navigate the ifs.

"I'm taking talent. I've said that from day one," Calipari said. "But here's the good news. This is a veteran, talented team. If you can get both, that's what you want, and we have that."

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