LEXINGTON, Ky. — On the road to the Kentucky Derby, it’s make-or-break time.
Saturday features three important prep races on the way to the first Saturday in May. There’s the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York. There’s the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park just south of Los Angeles. And there’s the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
All three spread 170 points among the top four finishers, with 100 for first, 40 for second, 20 for third and 10 for fourth. All three are Grade I races.
After slipping to Grade 2 status in 2017, the $1 million Blue Grass was elevated back to Grade 1. Keeneland’s decision to move the race date back a week on the calendar has produced better quality fields.
For example, Chad Brown’s Good Magic won the 2018 edition, then finished second to Justify in the Kentucky Derby before winning the Grade 1 Haskell. Essential Quality’s win in last year’s Blue Grass was his fourth consecutive triumph for trainer Brad Cox. After a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality won the Belmont, the Jim Dandy Stakes and the Travers.
Is there similar quality in this year’s Blue Grass field? It’s possible. Smile Happy, the 9-5 favorite in the morning line, turned heads with his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November at Churchill Downs. He’s raced just once since, finishing second to Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter in the Risen Star on Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds. It was still considered an impressive effort for trainer Kenny McPeek.
Second-choice Zandon, at 5-2, has also has not raced since the Risen Star, where he finished third. Trained by Chad Brown, Zandon first jumped into the Kentucky Derby by finishing second by a nose to Mo Donegal in the Remsen last December. Mo Donegal is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Wood Memorial.
Third choice Emmanuel, at 5-1, is hoping to bounce back from a fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth on March 5. It was the first loss for the colt trained by Todd Pletcher.
Here’s the thing: Saturday is the last chance for many possibles to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. True, there’s next Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. But that finale offers a combined 34 qualifying points, far below this Saturday’s windfall.
Remember, the Derby is limited to 20 horses. Smile Happy currently sits 17th on the leaderboard with 30 points. Zandon is 25th with 14 points. Mo Donegal is 26th with just 12 points. Emmanuel is 34th with just five points.
Messier, the even-money favorite for the Santa Anita Derby, currently has zero Derby qualifying points. That’s because his second-place finish in the Los Alamitos Derby last December and his February triumph in the Robert B Lewis both came under Bob Baffert, whose horses are ineligible for Derby points thanks to the two-year ban Churchill handed Baffert after 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit tested positive for a substance banned on race days.
In preparation for Saturday, Messier was moved into Tim Yakteen’s barn. Blackadder, also previously trained by Baffert, was switched to Rodolphe Brisset in preparation for the Blue Grass.
Then there’s Rattle N Roll. Also trained by McPeek, he sits 21st on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 20 points. So, despite finishing fourth in the Louisiana Derby just two weeks ago, McPeek is taking a shot with the colt in the Blue Grass.
“It was a last-minute decision to run Rattle N Roll,” McPeek told Keeneland after Wednesday’s post-position draw. “He has been training real well the past two days and he won a Grade 1 (here) last fall. I think he will like an off track and I want to run him in the mud.”
Indeed, we should mention that Saturday’s weather forecast for the Blue Grass is far from ideal — a high of 45 degrees with a 38% chance of morning rain or snow. That’s right. Snow.
It doesn’t matter, though. This weekend is it. For most of the Derby aspirants, after Saturday, you’re either in or you’re out.
