Amid the latest spike in tensions between China and Taiwan, Donald Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton has a characteristically blunt message.
"We ought to be clear to China that we consider Taiwan an independent country … I think the doctrine of strategic ambiguity [towards Taiwan] has served its purpose," he told ABC RN's Between The Lines during a visit to Australia.
"[The US] should exchange full diplomatic recognition, embassies, the whole nine yards, and so should other countries."
Bolton served in top positions for multiple Republican presidents, including as US Ambassador to the United Nations under George W Bush and 17 months with Donald Trump before a well-publicised falling-out.
He's a conservative China hawk and has been outspoken about China's rise in the past.
"It's not Taiwan that's provoking this crisis. It's the determination in China to subjugate Taiwan," he said.
Tense times
China, or the People's Republic of China (PRC), considers Taiwan, or the Republic of China (ROC), to be a breakaway province and has vowed to "unify" the island with the mainland.
Australia's stance is that Taiwan is not a sovereign state and it does not regard the authorities in Taiwan as having the status of a national government. Meanwhile, China is Australia's largest trading partner.
But Bolton advocated a very different approach to Taiwan.
"The fact is, on Taiwan, the people have decided they want to be an independent country. And in terms of their identification over the last 30 years, they see themselves as Taiwanese. They do not see themselves as Chinese."
He said the Taiwanese "don't want a 'one country, two systems' approach [with China]. They want a separate, democratic government — which they have".
"People can say, 'oh, come on, they're all Chinese'. Well, those same people would have to say, 'you people in Australia shouldn't be independent. You're really British'."
Conventional wisdom in the US is that its interests are best served by maintaining a status quo that balances de facto autonomy with formal ambiguity of status for Taiwan.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have recently increased, with a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, followed by subsequent Chinese military drills around the island.
"I think Pelosi was right to go," Bolton said.
Echoing comments he has previously made about China's rise, he said "there's no doubt we need increases in the [US] defence budget".
"This is still part of the hangover from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the 'peace dividend' was declared. The US and many other countries dramatically cut their militaries."
Trump 2024?
In a wide-ranging interview with ABC RN's Between The Lines, Bolton also unpacked the current state of US politics and warned against a return to power for his former boss.
Trump and Bolton fell out in 2019 after significant disagreements, including on North Korea, and Bolton is now a harsh critic of the 45th president.
He said he was "actually fairly optimistic that Trump's support was declining" until the recent FBI search of the former president's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. Bolton claimed this "has caused a resurgence in his support".
"Before the subpoena, I believed Trump would not actually run for the nomination, he would talk about it incessantly … but he wouldn't actually run. He fears losing and being called a loser for Trump is the single worst thing," he said.
"But there's been a kind of tribal reaction to the Biden Justice Department going after Trump … I think Trump gathers support when he becomes the target of the Biden administration, or of the left in America. People rally around him."
Bolton said in his view, "[Trump's] real support within the Republican Party … his actual base, is maybe 15 to 20 per cent of the party".
And his message to Republican colleagues who say they will support Trump come hell or high water: "If you want to lose, be my guest".
"During the course of [Trump's] incumbency, he cost us the House of Representatives. He cost us the Senate. He cost us the White House. He cost us in state and local elections."
Bolton said for the upcoming November midterm elections "if [they're] about Donald Trump, Republicans will not do as well as they should".
Looking beyond to the next US presidential election, he said: "My super PAC [political action committee]'s polling shows within the Republican Party … [people] want to see a new face in 2024".
'A very dangerous thing'
Since falling out with Trump and publicly criticising him in interviews and a book, Bolton has received some cheers from the progressive side of US politics, who he has fiercely clashed with for decades.
"There's plenty of irony in it. But it shows one of the distorting factors that Trump has had in American politics — people lining up and saying 'are you with Trump or against Trump?'" he said.
"And I think that's a very dangerous thing to happen."
"In politics, you pursue philosophy and policies. You can agree with a person on this policy, but disagree [with them] on another," Bolton said.
"But if it's simply a loyalty test to a person as opposed to a philosophy, that's potentially very dangerous."
Ukraine is 'a race against exhaustion'
Bolton said of the current status of the war in Ukraine: "Both sides may be nearing exhaustion, in terms of casualties".
"The Russians have suffered casualties beyond comprehension in the West. I think it just shows their calculus about the value for human life is not what ours is," he said.
And he said while the Ukrainians "have been very silent about their total casualties, I don't think we should take that to mean they've been light — I think they've been very heavy".
"[So] we're in a race against exhaustion in a certain sense here. The most likely outcome, though, is that the war will simply continue because there's no diplomatic advantage, certainly for the Ukraine side, to bring it to a halt."
He said the West needs to keep the pressure on Russia, or even ramp it up.
"We need to make clear that the sanctions against Russia as a whole will remain in place and perhaps even increase until their troops are off Ukrainian soil."
A divided America
Despite the problems gripping America, Bolton said this is not the most divided the US has ever been. He swats down a comparison with the leadup to the country's civil war.
"I don't think the situation in America is even remotely close to what happened before the civil war, when the Union broke up," he said.
"It's just an exaggeration that really contributes to the problem and doesn't help find ways to solve it."
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