KANSAS CITY (9-4) AT L.A. CHARGERS (8-5)
TV: Fox, NFL, Amazon Prime, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Kansas City by 3; O/U: 52.5
One of the biggest storylines of this season, at least for the first two months, was: "When will the real Kansas City team show up?" You know, the one that seemed unbeatable the last couple of years. It started 1-2, then 2-3, then 3-4. Patrick Mahomes was a turnover machine. The defense was allowing 29 points per game.
Then the calendar flipped to November. Kansas City hasn’t lost since, winning six in a row and doing it surprisingly with defense. KC has allowed just under 11 points per game, holding its opponents to 17, 7, 14, 9, 9 and 9 points. That’s impressive. This will be the biggest test yet against Justin Herbert and a talented Chargers offense, but I think Steve Spagnuolo’s group will be up for the challenge.
L.A. won the first meeting, 30-24, in Week 3, so another win here and it would bolt to the top of the AFC West standings. The Chargers aren’t 100% on the offensive line, and that’s not a good winning formula against a surging Kansas City defense on a short week.
Another talking point for most of this season (and last) was that KC hardly covered. That had a lot to do with the spreads being so high, but it was a striking number: 1-9-1 against the spread in its last 11 entering this season before starting 0-3. KC is now 6-7 ATS after covering its last four.
Mahomes is 19-3 straight up against the AFC West, including a 4-2 mark against the Chargers. L.A. has been KC’s closest competition in the division, but could it really sweep the season series? I don’t see it. Mahomes and the offense will do enough (20-27-point range) but it will be the defense that again steals the show as Kansas City extends its win streak to seven games, makes it five straight covers and moves a step closer to securing the AFC’s lone first-round bye in the playoffs.
The pick: Kansas City
