Here. We. Go. Four weeks, 64 games, no more byes and a whole lot of uncertainty as the race for the playoffs heats up. This is shaping up to be the most wide-open January in recent years. COVID could have an impact on multiple games this week, so be careful. There are also a number of double-digit lines this week, so be careful again.
Favorites went a whopping 11-3 against the spread (ATS) last week but underdogs still have the season lead at 105-100-2.
My most confident picks this week ATS are New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Be like Urban Meyer and stay away from the 2-11 vs. 2-11 battle between Houston and Jacksonville.
GAME (AND LOCK) OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND (9-4) AT INDIANAPOLIS (7-6)
Saturday night
TV: NFL, 8:20 p.m.
Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 45.5
The Patriots have won seven in a row, including a 7-0 ATS run, won their last game with Mac Jones attempting three passes, haven’t lost on the road all season, are off a bye . . . and they’re underdogs? I don’t get this line at all. Sure, the Colts are home and also off a bye but the wrong team is favored. When you have that thought, it usually means Vegas knows more than you, but I’m confident New England will win. Bill Belichick’s defense has allowed just 20-plus points once during the winning streak, and the other six games yielded point totals of 13, 6, 7, 0, 13 and 10. With a chance to maintain the No. 1 seed in the AFC, there’s no reason to think the Pats will let up. I’ve been pro-Colts but a trend has developed: They beat up on bad teams but make mistakes and cost themselves against stronger competition (see both losses to the Titans). Jones gets more involved this week and the defense again that takes center stage in prime time as the Pats stay hot.
The pick: New England
SATURDAY GAME
LAS VEGAS (6-7) AT CLEVELAND (7-6)
TV: NFL, 4:30 p.m.
Las Vegas by 1; O/U: 38.5
This line has been all over the place. It opened at Browns -5 (which was an odd number) and now the hosts are underdogs after Baker Mayfield and coach Kevin Stefanski, among others, tested positive for COVID. I really liked Las Vegas at +5, but the Browns have been in this backs-against-the-wall situation before and they’ve won. I was all set to pick them . . . until a report that Case Keenum also tested positive. No coach and third-string QB? That's too much.
The pick: Las Vegas
SUNDAY’S 1 P.M. GAMES
DALLAS (9-4) AT GIANTS (4-9)
TV: Fox
Dallas by 10.5; O/U: 44.5
The Cowboys have won eight of the last nine meetings, and while my first thought was that this number is way too high for a road team to lay in a rivalry game, the reality is the Giants are too banged-up and too bad to back. What’s more likely: 34-17 Dallas or this being close?
The pick: Dallas
JETS (3-10) AT MIAMI (6-7)
TV: CBS
Line: OFF (likely Miami -10)
Even when Miami is off, it’s on. The Dolphins’ decision to save its bye week (remember, it played at London in Week 6 but opted to hold off on the bye) was a good one, as they got a chance to recharge for a wild-card push. They’ve won five in a row (all covers) and will make it six on both fronts. Zach Wilson missed the Week 11 meeting (24-17 Dolphins), and he will probably wish he didn’t make this trip after facing a blitz-happy defense that’s rested and raring to go.
The pick: Miami
WASHINGTON (6-7) AT PHILADELPHIA (6-7)
Line: OFF (likely Philadelphia -7)
This line has ballooned after the COVID issues for Washington. It’s more points than I want to lay in a rivalry game in which both teams need to win to have any shot at a wild-card spot, but the Eagles are rested off the bye and that will benefit Jalen Hurts.
The pick: Philadelphia
TENNESSEE (9-4) AT PITTSBURGH (6-6-1)
Tennessee by 1; O/U: 42.5
I like backing desperate teams with their season on the line, so I was already taking Pittsburgh. Then I saw a tweet about the Steelers’ record as home underdogs, courtesy of CBS Sports, and it only reinforced my first instinct: The Steelers are 2-0 straight up (SU) in that spot this season, 6-0 ATS since the start of 2018, 12-3-2 ATS under Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger is 9-2 SU and ATS.
The pick: Pittsburgh
CAROLINA (5-8) AT BUFFALO (7-6)
Line: OFF (likely Buffalo -10)
Buffalo will get back on track, but with Josh Allen dealing with a foot sprain, don’t expect this to be a blowout.
The pick: Carolina
ARIZONA (10-3) AT DETROIT (1-11-1)
Arizona by 13; O/U: 47
This is a huge number to lay on the road. Still, Arizona is 7-0 straight up and ATS away from home, with wins by 25, 12, 17, 23, 14, 10 and 11. Kyler Murray should have a field day.
The pick: Arizona
HOUSTON (2-11) AT JACKSONVILLE (2-11)
Jacksonville by 5; O/U: 39.5
This 2-11 battle got some juice with the firing of Urban Meyer. Jacksonville is now a bigger favorite, so Vegas has the same thought I did: The Jaguars players are going to be relieved and fired up now that Meyer and all the drama is gone.
The pick: Jacksonville
4 P.M. GAMES
GREEN BAY (10-3) AT BALTIMORE (8-5)
TV: Fox
Green Bay by 5.5; O/U: 43.5
Even if Lamar Jackson plays, his ankle won’t be anywhere near 100% and that’s not a good recipe against Aaron Rodgers and an under-the-radar Packers defense. Green Bay has been a great bet all season (10-2-1 ATS) and is in the driver’s seat to get the NFC’s 1 seed. It won’t let up here.
The pick: Green Bay
SEATTLE (5-8) AT L.A. RAMS (9-4)
L.A. by 5.5; O/U: 45
The Rams have won four of the last five meetings, including 26-17 at Seattle this year. They’re off their best win of the season, but a little letdown off MNF should be expected. L.A. also has been hit hard by COVID, hence the point spread dropping. The Seahawks have won two in a row for the first time all year and have a long, long shot at a wild-card spot so expect another close rivalry game.
The pick: Seattle
CINCINNATI (7-6) AT DENVER (7-6)
Denver by 2.5: O/U: 44
Orange Bowl, anyone? This is a big game for the AFC wild-card race, with both teams having identical records. Denver has played well at home but I’m going with the better quarterback and better team.
The pick: Cincinnati
ATLANTA (6-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (7-6)
San Francisco by 9.5; O/U: 46
The 49ers have won four of five and could be a dangerous team if they make the playoffs. They’ll win here, but the number is too big: The Falcons are 5-2 on the road and are still fighting.
The pick: Atlanta
SUNDAY NIGHT
NEW ORLEANS (6-7) AT TAMPA BAY (10-3)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Tampa Bay by 11; O/U: 46.5
The Bucs are 6-0 at home, with covers in the last five. Tom Brady has lost all three regular-season games against the Saints since he joined the Bucs, though, including a 36-27 defeat this year. A desperate New Orleans team, led by its defense, can keep this to single digits.
The pick: New Orleans
MONDAY NIGHT
MINNESOTA (6-7) AT CHICAGO (4-9)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Minnesota by 5; O/U: 44
All but one of Minnesota’s games have been decided by eight or fewer points, so expect another down-to-the-wire finish. Reasons to take the points: Kirk Cousins is 1-9 on MNF and 1-5 vs. Chicago since joining the NFC North.
The pick: Chicago
