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Joe Manniello

Joe Manniello's Thursday night NFL pick

L.A. CHARGERS (1-0) AT KANSAS CITY (1-0)

TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.

Line: Kansas City by 4.5; O/U: 54.5

Last week I wrote, “Let’s see how this Kansas City offense looks without Tyreek Hill before laying nearly a touchdown on the road.” Um, yeah, about that.

Patrick Mahomes & Co. looked unstoppable in a 44-21 win at Arizona. Mahomes threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns as he improved to 5-0 in season openers. But wait, there’s more: Mahomes is 12-2 in September with 46 TD passes to only three interceptions. He’s also 5-2 vs. the Chargers for his career and 3-1 in Thursday night games (the one loss was against the Bolts in a thriller in 2018).

There’s the case for backing the hosts, but we pick games against the spread. That changes things. The Chargers, off a 24-19 win over the Raiders, have talent all over the field and a quarterback in Justin Herbert who can match Mahomes big throw for big throw. Herbert threw for 297 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1.

The Chargers won at Arrowhead last season, 30-24, in Week 3, and lost a 34-28 overtime contest to KC in December. The teams have split the last four meetings. The Chargers won’t have receiver Keenan Allen, but they have other weapons on offense. Defense, too, as Khalil Mack had three sacks in his Chargers debut. Joey Bosa had 1.5. Mahomes will face a consistent pass rush all night.

Another reason to back the Bolts: Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker hurt his ankle in Week 1 and is out. In what feels like a game that could be decided by a late field goal, that could be huge.

This game is a toss-up between two really good teams, so maybe it’s best to just sit this one out and watch without added stress (reminder: TNF games are exclusively on Amazon Prime now). One thing I’m certain of: Expect Al Michaels to reference the point spread late in the game as the outcome is up in the air.

The pick: L.A. Chargers

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