GREEN BAY (6-1) AT ARIZONA (7-0)
TV: Fox, NFL, Amazon Prime, 8:20 p.m
Line: Arizona by 6.5; O/U: 50.5
There have been 107 NFL games played so far this season. Some have been easy picks, some have been tough. None, though, was shaping up to be a more difficult selection than this matchup between NFC heavyweights ... until the Packers’ COVID-19 outbreak.
Arizona is the NFL’s lone unbeaten team; Green Bay hasn’t lost since Week 1. Both are great bets against the spread, too: The Cardinals have covered five straight and are 6-1 ATS; the Packers are on a 5-0-1 ATS run after that lopsided defeat in the opener.
When the line opened at Arizona -3.5, I was going to take the Cards (after flipping a coin several times). Now, with the Packers’ Davante Adams, arguably the best receiver in the NFL, testing positive for the virus, the line had a big move. Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry also tested positive.
The deck was already stacked against the Pack, with a short week playing an undefeated Cards team on the road, but this is too much. Sure, Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers and you can never count him out, but without Adams and fellow receiver Allen Lazard, it’s too big of an ask.
Another aspect to picking this game, one that might be overlooked, is that Arizona still isn’t getting its due respect. The current Super Bowl odds at multiple sportsbooks have them as the fourth-best chances of winning the title (behind the Bucs, Bills and Rams). Kyler Murray is having an MVP-caliber season and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals put on a show before a national audience.
Five of Arizona’s wins have been by double digits, including margins of 26, 25, 23 and 17. The last thing a defense needs facing a dual-threat quarterback like Murray is not having its defensive coordinator. The Packers’ banged-up secondary has played well, but they’ll have their hands full with DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and Zach Ertz, who caught a TD pass in his Arizona debut on Sunday.
If Rodgers finds a way to keep this under a touchdown, it wouldn’t shock me. The Packers haven’t faced an elite team this season, though, and this is the worst time for them to make a trip to the desert. The Cardinals get to 8-0 with a comfortable win.
The pick: Arizona
