BALTIMORE (6-2) AT MIAMI (2-7)
TV: Fox, NFL
Line: Baltimore by 7.5; O/U: 46.5
It’s hard to get four people to agree on anything these days ... unless it’s picking NFL games against the spread. The last two Thursday night games, our staff picks were All-4-Arizona and then All-4-the Jets. Naturally, both were losses. As a reader (hey, David!) pointed out in an email, "The dreaded ‘All four of you picked the same team’ game."
Believe it or not, it’s happened 34 times out of 136 games this season, exactly 25%. Our record against the spread in those games: 15-18-1. Three of those losses were on TNF (Cincinnati in Week 4 was the other). Which brings us to this week’s blah matchup between first-place Baltimore and last-place Miami. I thought it would be another clean sweep for Baltimore, but there’s one Miami pick so hey, we won’t go 0 for 4!
This is a big number to lay on the road, on a short week and with a Baltimore team that basically just played an extra quarter in a 34-31 overtime win over Minnesota. But I’m going to do it anyway. Miami just snapped a seven-game losing streak by beating one-win Houston. Facing Lamar Jackson is a whole different beast.
The Ravens had their bye in Week 8, but the Dolphins have yet to have a week off despite playing in London in Week 6. They chose to save their bye for later in the season, a decision that might backfire when they’re gassed chasing the elusive Jackson. Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision, and it’s hard to see Miami scoring more than 17 points no matter who starts at quarterback (the Dolphins have scored 20 or more points just three times this season).
Jackson is 9-4 in prime time with 24 TDs to only 4 INTs, and with Baltimore atop the crowded AFC North (the three teams behind the Ravens all have five wins), expect the better team to be motivated, take care of business and get out of town with a double-digit win.
The pick: Baltimore
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Staff picks
Bob Glauber: Baltimore
Tom Rock: Miami
Al Iannazzone: Baltimore
