SUPER BOWL LIII: RAMS VS. PATRIOTS
Patriots -2.5; O/U: 56.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m.
It hasn't been an easy postseason for picking games, at least not for me, so I had this super idea for the Super Bowl LIII column: Hire Tony Romo to be a guest writer. But he has some previous engagement, so you're stuck with me.
This matchup, like both conference championship games, is essentially a toss-up. The LIIIne hasn't budged from 2.5 for more than a week. Seventeen years to the day of the Patriots' Super Bowl XXXVI win over the Rams, a game in which New England was a 14-point underdog, Sean McVay and Jared Goff look to do what Bill Belichick and Tom Brady did and win their first Super Bowl appearance.
Both teams took similar routes to the big game. The No. 2 seeds coasted to division titles, had convincing wins in the divisional round and then had a big break go their way late on Championship Sunday before prevailing in overtime.
Rams-Patriots Part II should be a fun one that isn't decided till late, maybe even real late (more on that later). I don't feel as super confident as I did last year when I picked the Eagles to beat the Patriots, but I do feel the Rams have a lot going in their favor.
Here are five reasons to back the young Rams:
1. PRESSURE BRADY
A big reason New England is here is because Brady is the only quarterback not to be sacked this postseason. I thought the other L.A. team would beat the Pats three weeks ago because of its pass rush, but New England negated that with quick screen passes and throws over the middle. I think Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has a few tricks up his sleeve, though. Aaron Donald, who led the NFL with 20.5 sacks, will get to Brady and pressure him the way Justin Tuck and the Giants did in Super Bowl XLII. The key to beating the Pats always has been getting in Brady's face, and Donald, Ndamukong Suh and the Rams' linebackers will have success. Another big key: Containing James White in the passing game.
2. SPEAKING OF PRESSURE
The roles for this Rams-Pats Super Bowl are reversed from the first one. All of the pressure is on Brady and Belichick, making their record ninth appearance. Doesn't 6-3 in the big game sound a lot nicer than 5-4? Also, they don't want to lose back-to-back Super Bowls. As dominant as the Pats have been, they've never dominated this game. Their previous Super Bowl wins, starting with the 20-17 victory over the Rams, have been by 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 points.
3. EXPERIENCE OVERRATED
When this matchup is talked about in future Super Bowl trivia contests, it will be referred to as the "First Time, Long Time Bowl." So what if McVay, at 33 years old, is half the age of Belichick, or that Goff, 24, could be the 41-year-old Brady's son. Did it matter 17 years ago when the Pats shocked the world in their debut? Did inexperience stop Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin, and then Doug Pederson and Nick Foles, from beating the big, bad Pats? Sure, the experience will help with the extra-long halftime, but it's still an NFL game. If McVay and Goff can overcome the noise of the Superdome, playing on a neutral field in Atlanta will be nothing compared to that.
4. McVAY'S MOMENT
The Rams' passionate coach was born for this stage. The grandson of former Giants coach John McVay, he's the youngest to ever coach in a Super Bowl after bursting on to the scene last season and leading L.A. to back-to-back division titles and a 24-8 regular-season record. He is a creative, aggressive play caller, and like the Eagles' Pederson did last February, he won't be afraid to empty his playbook. Look for some trick plays, and special teams coach John Fassel, Jim's son, to be the wild card in this Super Bowl. One of the best coaching calls all season was back in Week 5, when the Rams led 33-31 at Seattle, and instead of punting on fourth-and-short in his own territory, McVay had Goff sneak it for a game-ending first down. That takes guts, and that kind of go-for-it mentality is just what you need to beat the Pats.
5. WE'RE THE UNDERDOGS! NO, WE ARE!
Brady and the Pats have been playing the underdog card, but it's the Rams who might use it to their advantage. All they've heard for two weeks is how the Saints should be here and not them after that controversial no-call. If I'm McVay, I'm talking that up nonstop this week and especially on game day: "Let's go show the world we belong here!"
THE PREDICTION
What better way to end an exciting 2018 NFL season than having it finish with three straight overtime games. This feels like a back-and-forth chess match between Belichick and McVay, and I'm calling another OT finish. This time, it's Brady who never touches the ball as Goff ends it real quick with a long touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks (30-1 MVP long shot) as the Rams prove they were worthy of the big stage.
The pick: Rams
The score: Rams 33, Patriots 27 (OT)
The MVP: Brandin Cooks
