Wild-card weekend gives us six rematches from the regular season, and in three instances (Seattle-San Francisco, Miami-Buffalo and Baltimore-Cincinnati) this will be the teams' third meeting. Those three games don't seem likely to produce an upset, but the other three are toss-ups and anything can happen.
Saturday games
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO
TV: Fox, 4:30 p.m.
San Francisco by 9.5; O/U: 42
It’s hard to beat a team twice in one season, let alone three times, but how can you pick against San Francisco? It has won 10 in a row, including the last five with rookie Brock Purdy at quarterback. The NFL’s best defense held Seattle to one offensive TD in the first two meetings (27-7 in Week 2, 21-13 in Week 15). The 49ers are No. 1 at stopping the run (77.7 yards per game) and will make Seattle one-dimensional.
The pick: San Francisco
The score: San Francisco 31, Seattle 13
L.A. CHARGERS AT JACKSONVILLE
TV: NBC, 8:15 p.m.
Los Angeles by 2.5; O/U: 47.5
This is the clear front-runner for wildest wild-card game. The Chargers lost, 38-10, to the Jaguars back in Week 3, but this should be one of their trademark down-to-the-wire games. This is a true toss-up, but I’ll side with the hosts. Jacksonville has the clear coaching advantage (what were the Chargers doing playing regulars in a Week 18 meaningless game?), L.A. allowed 5.42 yards per carry, the most by an NFL team since 1959(!) and Trevor Lawrence figures to bounce back after one of his worst games.
The pick: Jacksonville
The score: Jacksonville 30, L.A. Chargers 27 (OT)
Sunday games
MIAMI AT BUFFALO
TV: CBS, 1 p.m.
Buffalo by 13.5; O/U: 43.5
Sorry, Dolphins fans, but I’m no longer feeling good about my preseason Super Bowl pick. Hey, at least they made the playoffs. If Tua Tagovailoa was starting, maybe this would be close like the Week 15 matchup in Buffalo, a 32-29 Bills win. While Miami has uncertainty at quarterback, Buffalo has Josh Allen, who has thrown for a total of 704 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in two games against the Dolphins this season. After a two-point loss and three-point win, expect the Bills to romp at home as they did in last year’s 47-17 wild-card win over the Patriots.
The pick: Buffalo
The score: 34-17
GIANTS AT MINNESOTA
TV: Fox, 4:30 p.m.
Minnesota by 3; O/U: 48.5
Is Minnesota the first team in NFL history to have a minus-3 point differential for the season and be minus-3 on the betting line in a playoff opener? Gotta be. The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games, including a 27-24 win on a walk-off, 61-yard field goal against the Giants on Christmas Eve. They needed a late blocked punt to set up a TD, too. Daniel Jones completed 30 passes for 334 yards in the first matchup, as Richie James (8 for 90), Isaiah Hodgins (8 for 89) and Darius Slayton (4 for 79) all found holes in the Vikings’ Cover-2 defense that allowed the second-most passing yards per game. Saquon Barkley (133 total yards, TD) should have a strong encore performance. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson torched the Giants’ secondary, and that’s a big concern, but with Minnesota losing its starting right tackle to injury, Big Blue’s pass rush could fluster Cousins this time. The Giants have been one of the most well-coached teams all season, and I like Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale having another shot at this just three weeks later. This is going to be another close win, only this time Graham Gano kicks the Giants into the divisional round.
The pick: Giants
The score: Giants 27, Vikings 24
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI
TV: NBC, 8:15 p.m.
Cincinnati by 10; O/U: 40.5
The Bengals have proved to be one of the most well-rounded teams. They’re also cover machines. Cincinnati has won eight in a row (all covers) and dating to last season’s remarkable playoff run to the Super Bowl, it has covered 16 of its last 20 games. Baltimore's defense can keep this competitive early, but this feels as if it will be closer to the Week 18 result (Bengals 27-16) than the Week 5 one (Ravens 19-17). The Bengals are sound in all three phases and Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will do enough to cover this number.
The pick: Cincinnati
The score: Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 16
Monday game
DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY
TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, 8:15 p.m.
Dallas by 2.5; O/U: 45.5
You know, considering this 4-5 matchup has felt inevitable for two months, you’d think I have a good feel on it. Instead, this has been the toughest game to pick. Tampa Bay won at Dallas, 19-3, in the opener, but has underachieved all season. The Cowboys looked awful in the regular-season finale, but you should never make too much out of one game. Still, Dak Prescott has thrown at least one interception in each of the last seven games, so that’s concerning. Tom Brady’s offensive line and receivers are getting healthy at the right time, and Dallas’ biggest weakness is its secondary. Brady is also 7-0 all time vs. Dallas. Then there’s this nugget that former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett discussed during last week’s SNF telecast: Dallas is 1-4 on grass this season. Too many signs are pointing against Dallas in this one.
The pick: Tampa Bay
The score: Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 23
