In many ways, Justin Herbert presents a fascinating football thought experiment.
For one, Herbert is a uniquely gifted quarterback. Few people can spin the ball and process defenses the way he does. He’s a finely-tuned cyborg who seldom makes backbreaking mistakes. It’s why the Los Angeles Chargers gave him $133.7 million fully guaranteed — the fourth-most in NFL history.
But beyond the gaudy numbers through four seasons (114 touchdown passes, over 17,000 passing yards), it feels like there’s something … missing. Because when you look at his resume, you think he should comfortably reside in that Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow class of quarterbacks.
But he doesn’t.
Was it a stifled Los Angeles Chargers offense that often ensured Herbert wouldn’t unleash his cannon downfield? Probably. Was it the lack of (ducks) … wins? Maybe. (Sorry, folks. At a certain point, #QBWinz does come into play!) Was it the persistent “Chargers-ing” curse, destined to drag down some of the best players in professional football history because they play for a franchise the football gods enjoy smiting? Uh, no comment.
Enter Jim Harbaugh, who will now have the pleasure of answering these Herbert questions while taking his new, talented quarterback to the next level. Both men understanding what it means to let the ball fly downfield because “there’s someone down there” is a great way to build their bond.
Rolling out and launching one down field? It's what @chargers do 🤷♂️
Jim Harbaugh 🤝 Justin Herbert pic.twitter.com/jDljMHTX9g
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) January 25, 2024
Harbaugh left Michigan — one of the most prestigious jobs in all of football — for a dimmer spotlight. In their current standing, in a crowded Los Angeles sports market that already has another much more popular NFL team, the Chargers may as well play 17 road games in a year. There’s no denying any of this.
That’s what makes Harbaugh’s takeover of the Chargers so enticing.
They are a perennially downtrodden team that most only think of in derisive terms. Harbaugh himself is one of the biggest names in football. He gives the Chargers tangible legitimacy with his presence alone. His job will be harnessing that influence to turn this second-fiddle afterthought into appointment-watching legitimate Super Bowl contenders year in and year out.
Harbaugh’s most optimal path to doing so is harnessing Herbert. It’s giving Herbert the keys to becoming an actual household name — not just a statistical darling for football-obsessed nerds. If you’re skeptical of how Harbaugh will fare coaching in the NFL after nearly a decade away, don’t be. His track record of success suggests a genuine Chargers’ Renaissance, with Herbert at the center, is just around the corner.
As my For The Win pal Christian D’Andrea wrote — Harbaugh wins everywhere he’s gone in his coaching career. And usually, as a much-needed catalyst, his quarterbacks thrive. Michigan was his greatest success yet:
“Harbaugh’s reign in Ann Arbor was one of sustained success, even if it didn’t reach the lofty heights Michigan boosters had hoped at first. He went 47-18 his first five years on the job but never finished higher than sixth in the final rankings. More importantly, he failed to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes — the Wolverines’ mortal enemy.
A 2-4 record in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season put Harbaugh on the hot seat. He responded. In the three years since, he’s gone 40-3. He’s won three Big Ten titles, made the College Football Playoff twice and, vitally, ruined the Buckeyes’ national title hopes in three straight years.
This, of course, came with caveats. He got wrapped up in on-field scandals ranging from improper recruiting practices to clandestinely taping opponents’ signals. There still may be pending fallout from NCAA investigations related to the Harbaugh tenure, but like Pete Carroll before him he’s leaving for the safe harbor of the NFL with the comfort of a national championship to soothe him.”
What Harbaugh achieved with J.J. McCarthy, a talented if flawed signal-caller at the peak of their Wolverines days, will likely be his model with Herbert. The Chargers’ Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback will no longer be expected to carry the burden alone.
That should be music to his ears.
Gone are the days where Herbert throws nearly an unfathomable 700 passes a year, just as he did in the 2021 and 2022 seasons before a broken finger prematurely ended his 2023. Harbaugh will almost certainly fixate on building a power running game that gives the Chargers a healthy balance and puts an extra defender in the box, allowing Herbert to take advantage with his arm. The Chargers will be more selective about how they throw the ball, and when they do, it’ll be for a big play at the right time, not a consistent dink-and-dunk affair.
Gone are the days where Herbert will be expected to lift the Chargers to an unlikely victory after they randomly flailed their arms around for 58 minutes. This is partly because a top-heavy defense will be rebuilt from the studs, ensuring the quarterback has more margin for error. And also, because the Chargers will likely no longer be the poorly-coached team that inevitably shoots itself in the foot in every pivotal game-deciding moment. This is where quality coaching can most make a difference.
Quentin Johnston could have won this game for the Chargers pic.twitter.com/v9dUQj1OVr
— Christian D’Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 19, 2023
From his rookie 2020 season to his cut-short 2023, Herbert was just 13th in the NFL in a composite of completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. That is the middle of the pack and uninspired. That is a classic example of what an incompetently-run franchise can do to its talisman. It is a far cry from what he’s more capable of. Herbert knows it. And Harbaugh definitely knows it.
There’s a lot to like about Harbaugh’s latest football adventure. If there was anyone who could turn a middling franchise accustomed to disappointingly straddling around .500 every year, it was the man who finally brought a championship back to Ann Arbor. It was the man who has won everywhere he’s coached.
Harbaugh’s tenure with the Chargers will start with a plan to maximize Herbert, one of the NFL’s more promising and exciting quarterbacks. It will end with him turning the Chargers into a powerhouse, with Herbert at the forefront.
