Here’s a look at the Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team’s potential path to the 2022 Final Four, along with my thoughts on whether the Jayhawks received a lucky or unlucky draw each round.
KU’s first-round opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): 16 seed Texas Southern
Lucky or unlucky draw? Lucky.
KU fans might as well cheer for Texas A&M Corpus Christi in Tuesday’s play-in game — it’s the weaker of the two teams in that one — but the Jayhawks drawing Texas Southern would be just fine too. The Tigers rank 188th nationally in KenPom, which is toward the bottom for 16 seeds, and ShotQuality’s underlying numbers like them a lot less while ranking them 316th nationally. In short: KU will be a heavy favorite in Round 1 with little risk of a 1-16 upset.
KU’s potential Round of 32 opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): 8 seed San Diego State
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky.
Might as well quote from my NCAA Tournament bracket preview where I said San Diego State would be the toughest matchup for KU on the 8-9 line:
If you’re worried about how KU might fare against a super-athletic team — think USC last season or Kentucky this season — then San Diego State is the most critical team to avoid. The Aztecs struggle to score — KenPom has their offense ranked 155th, while ShotQuality has it 228th — but there is no denying that they are elite defensively, with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Mark Zeigler describing them as “long, athletic and, most importantly, experienced in the sophisticated schemes and expectations of SDSU’s defensive culture.” San Diego State gets after opponents with steals, blocks and stingy two-point defense, and that makes it the type of lineup KU would rather avoid before the NCAA’s second weekend.
It’s worth noting that KenPom (22nd) and ShotQuality (87th) diverge quite a bit on how they feel about the Aztecs. Either way, KU fans should find themselves cheering for Creighton in Round 1, as that’d be a much less scary Round of 32 matchup.
KU’s potential Sweet 16 opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): 5 seed Iowa
Lucky or unlucky draw? Slightly lucky.
KU lucked out by getting the weakest 4 seed in Providence, but it also drew a disrespected 5 seed in Iowa, which makes this a good draw but not an amazing one.
The Hawkeyes (12th KenPom, 13th ShotQuality) win with elite offense, though the flip side is that they’re much worse defensively than typical elite teams.
Iowa will be a clear Vegas favorite to beat Providence — if the Friars make it past 13th-seeded South Dakota State in the opener — but the Hawkeyes also should be a 2-to-3-point underdog against the Jayhawks if they meet in the Sweet 16.
KU’s potential Elite Eight opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): 2 seed Auburn
Lucky or unlucky draw? Lucky.
KU’s 2 seed Auburn joins Villanova (South) as the weakest of the No. 2 seeds, and the NCAA selection committee gave KU an added favor by putting overseeded Wisconsin on the 3 line in the Midwest.
Elite Eight games aren’t easy. But I’m confident KU — no matter which team it would face in that spot — would be at least a two-point favorite to make the Final Four if it got there.
Overall
If an “A” grade was the most favorable draw and “F” was the least, I’d grade KU’s path at an “A.”
For one, KU should win its first game without worry. San Diego State in Round 2 is problematic if you’re the type that is concerned about KU going against athleticism, but the bottom line is, the Aztecs are flawed offensively. Even if that worst-case scenario plays out, KU should be about a seven-point favorite to advance, and upsets are always possible before that.
Iowa could be a challenging Sweet 16 game in Chicago, but if the Hawkeyes were beaten before that point, KU’s bracket would open up quite a bit with few other strong teams remaining. The Jayhawks also couldn’t ask for a better 2/3 seed pairing with Auburn and Wisconsin, as neither squad will come as better than the Jayhawks statistically.
Bottom line: KU will be the favorite to advance to the Final Four out of the Midwest Region. The Jayhawks also should not be a Vegas underdog until the Final Four.
Can’t ask for anything more out of a draw than that.
