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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Merz says he ‘deplores deeply’ UK’s decision to leave EU after signing UK-Germany treaty – as it happened

German chancellor Merz and UK prime minister Keir Starmer speak to the press.
German chancellor Merz and UK prime minister Keir Starmer speak to the press. Photograph: Leon Neal/Reuters

Labour and Greens likely to gain most from votes at 16, but not by much, say experts

Here are comments from two pollsters on who might benefit most from votes at 16.

From Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK

Given young voters tend to lean to the left, we should expect the Greens and Labour to be the bigger winners of extending the vote to 16 and 17 year olds, with Reform doing well among young men, and the Tories the big losers. But 16-17 year old voters would only make up a small proportion of the electorate, so are unlikely to shift the dial politically at a national level. That said in a fragmented political landscape, even small changes can have big effects locally

Beyond the electoral impact, the bigger question is whether this change will be popular. The public opposes lowering the voting age by a 48% to 27% margin, and it is not near the top of many Britons’ priorities. So the government will have to set out a clear message to the public about why they are pursuing this policy if they are to bring the public on board.

From Patrick English, director of polling analytics at YouGov

The narrative that Farage/Reform are popular among young people is false - they’re on ~10% with 18-24s, compared to ~30% for Labour.

Labour are most popular choice for young voters.

I don’t see any reason why 16-17 year olds would be any different (to 18-24s) in this regard so I don’t see why Reform, rather than Labour (who lead with that group), would be punching the air.

It’s certainly true that Greens will be happy though - they’re 2nd among young voters

I think the whole “Reform are popular among young people” false narrative is spun up from the fact that Reform are probably more popular among young people *than we may expect*, and that there are young men wearing suits happy to go on the media to talk about their Reform support

But that doesn’t actually reflect the polling reality - Labour still leads among young voters, Reform are way, way behind. Basically level with the Conservatives.

I fully expect votes at 16 to definitely benefit Labour most, as well as Greens and even Lib Dems. Not Reform.

(The caveat being… the size of said benefit is very much to be determined. We aren’t *actually* talking about a huge number of people, here. Even fewer still when you consider turnout propensity among younger voters. So this won’t be an electoral silver bullet.)

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