When the Celtics were eliminated from the postseason, Boston’s Jaylen Brown recorded a game-high and career-high eight turnovers.
These were costly mistakes during the loss and it could potentially prove to be even more costly during contract negotiations for Brown this offseason. Brown, who has played his entire career with the Celtics thus far, is set to enter the final year of his contract.
Brown averaged 26.6 points per game and was named All-NBA Second-Team, which makes him eligible for a supermax extension offer from the Celtics. As noted by Yossi Gozlan (via HoopsHype):
“He will be eligible to extend with the Celtics during the 2023 offseason for up to five years, projected at $285.6 million. It would give him a starting salary of $49.2 million and pay him $65 million in his age 32 season.”
Brown could also wait until the 2024 offseason and potentially sign with a new team as an unrestricted free agent, which aligns with when the salary cap is projected to spike due to a new TV deal.
Both the Celtics and Brown have important decisions to make this offseason, but Boston’s front office has to wonder if it is worth giving such a rich deal to a player who has struggled with his ball handling.
Brown shot 12-for-41 (29.3 percent) on 3-pointers attempted after more than seven dribbles this season, per NBA.com. That ranked as the second-worst mark in the Eastern Conference (minimum: 30 attempts) and was better than only rookie Jaden Ivey. That’s not great.
Jaylen Brown with his EIGHTH turnover of the game as he just loses the dribble again pic.twitter.com/uoUYlMSCE9
— hoops bot (@hoops_bot) May 30, 2023
There were far too many ball handling mistakes for Brown, and it wasn’t just an isolated incident during the playoffs.
Brown averaged 1.94 stable non-bad pass turnovers per 75 possessions, per BBall-Index, which was second-most (behind Golden State’s Jordan Poole) among all non-big men (minimum: 1,000 minutes) in 2022-23.
The playoffs were especially unkind to Brown. According to PBPStats, Brown led all players in live ball turnovers (43) and lost ball turnovers (24) during the postseason.
These mistakes lead to huge momentum shifts for the other team:
Jaylen Brown, the star that can’t dribble.
Jimmy Butler tough finish.
— Ty Hartwell (@tyhartwell__) May 30, 2023
But this isn’t just something that has haunted him recently. It’s a career-long issue that has followed him since he turned pro.
Russell Westbrook (154) and James Harden (130) are the only two players who have lost the ball out of bounds more often than Brown (121) since the Celtics wing came into the league, per PBPStats. His handle is too loose, he often dribbles directly into one or several defenders, and he kicks the ball off his feet.
It’s a testament to Jaylen Brown’s off-ball scoring that he can average as many points as he does with such a debilitating handle. He cannot do much of anything as an on-ball creator.
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) May 30, 2023
Yet he has still managed to score at least 20.0 points per game four seasons in a row. There is tremendous value for someone as talented as Brown on an NBA roster.
Jayson Tatum said it’s “extremely important” for the Celtics to keep Brown in Boston for the foreseeable future, and he’s not wrong.
We saw Tatum hampered by injury during Game 7 against the Heat and when Brown was asked to step into the lead role as the primary initiator for Boston, his dribbling made it clear he does not project well as a lead ball handler.
Indeed, this is a serious concern as the Celtics head into the offseason. Yet from an asset retention management perspective, it’s absolutely worth keeping Brown rather than risking him walking in free agency for nothing.
The Celtics still have two years, IMO, until the Jaylen/Jayson think becomes a significant question from a salary cap perspective. It's a lot of money to guarantee to two guys, but they take up ~50% of the cap in 2023-24 and 60% of the cap in 2024-25. Those aren't crazy numbers.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) May 30, 2023
He and Tatum are both just 26 and 25 years old, respectively. The Celtics have invested several years and tens of millions of dollars into improving his game. It’s not worth walking away right before he hits his prime.
As deficient as Brown is at dribbling right now, he still has enough potential and he is still young enough that it makes more sense to just work on his skill development rather than try to find someone to replace him now.
If he signs a supermax, Brown can’t be traded during his first year on the deal. Eventually, Boston’s front office may decide that the Tatum and Brown pairing is not a good fit. Then, they could try a different direction. He can be a valuable piece of a trade down the road.
But they’ve had three head coaches in three years and have still made the Eastern Conference finals two years in a row. Give them some time to have at least one slightly normal season, then they re-evaluate.
Until then, though, Brown must spend this offseason working on his ball handling and his dribbling as often and as diligently as possible.
