It was one of the underrated developments of the 2022 season. Amid another 100-loss campaign, the Pirates began to see the makings of a fairly strong rotation.
Mitch Keller figured it out. Roansy Contreras emerged. Luis Ortiz seemingly came out of nowhere, pumping gas. Johan Oviedo was a solid trade pickup, and JT Brubaker produced plenty of palatable numbers — a 3.92 FIP and 147 strikeouts in 144 innings.
Still, it's not enough.
Nor should it be.
"We believe in the group we have and the chance they have to keep getting better together," general manager Ben Cherington said after trading Kevin Newman earlier this month. "But we would like to add to the rotation."
With the signing of Carlos Santana ($6.725 million, one year) expected to be finalized this week, the Pirates creating a first base tandem featuring veterans Santana and Ji-Man Choi, they can now turn their attention to other places. Like starting pitching.
The good news is that available options abound. Let's examine.
Bounce-back candidates
It might not be sexy or splashy, but similar to Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana the past two offseasons, it makes sense. Right-hander Michael Pineda is coming off a down year with the Tigers, who released him in September.
A right middle finger fracture and right triceps tightness limited Pineda, 33, to just 11 starts in 2022, where he had a 5.79 ERA with a .304 batting average against and 13 home runs in 46 2/3 innings.
It's also concerning that the 6-foot-7, 280-pounder's four-seam fastball velocity dropped for a fourth consecutive year and averaged just 89.9 mph in 2022, the pitch producing a .704 slugging percentage against.
But how much of that was injury-related? Would Pineda benefit from consistent starts to steer his career back on track? Might be worth a look.
After all, we're talking about someone who had a 4.01 ERA and just 28 walks against 140 strikeouts for the Twins (featuring Derek Shelton as bench coach) in 2019. Pineda, who struck out 207 with the Yankees in 2016, has a career walk rate of just 5.3%, important for a team that needs to throw more strikes.
While Pineda's heater warrants a closer look, it's encouraging that his slider (.262 slugging percentage against) remains elite. Like Anderson and Quintana, it offers a terrific baseline.
Another veteran in need of starts is Wade Miley, a familiar name for Pirates fans considering he's pitched for eight teams, three in the NL Central. The 36-year-old made just nine appearances (eight starts) for the Cubs last season, producing a 3.16 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 37 innings.
The bigger issue is Miley dealing with left elbow inflammation and a left shoulder strain and ensuring those check out. But assuming they do, we're talking about a lefty — something the Pirates don't currently have in their rotation and certainly could use — who has been plenty solid.
In 2021: 12-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 28 games/starts, walking 50 and striking out 125 for the Reds. From 2018-21, Miley had a 3.53 ERA in 83 games (81 starts) totaling 425 1/3 innings.
Similar to Pineda, Miley has seen his velocity drop over the last few years, but as the Pirates learned with Anderson and Quintana, knowing how to pitch can often mean more than how hard you throw.
Make some sense
MLB Trade Rumors probably surprised Pirates fans earlier this offseason by linking right-hander Michael Wacha to them with a two-year deal worth $16 million.
Doubtful anyone would complain about that, though it's hard to see it happening given how Wacha pitched for the Red Sox in 2022, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 games/starts, with 31 walks and 104 strikeouts over 127 1/3 innings.
Similar to Quintana, he should have opened up more avenues for himself than the Pirates, and ... well, they've never exactly been the overpaying type, would be the polite way of saying it.
Wacha, a longtime Cardinal, struggled plenty prior to 2022, with a 5.11 ERA, 5.07 FIP and 1.45 WHIP over the three previous seasons. But one would think that the bulk of his 2022 was enough to spur interest elsewhere.
A knock against him was a lousy final three starts, with Wacha giving up 14 earned runs and eight homers over 13 1/3 innings. Still, it's hard to see that small of a sample size knocking him into Pirates territory.
Another who makes some sense is Drew Smyly, a left-hander who spent 2022 with the Cubs. Similar to Wacha, Smyly didn't pitch poorly: 3.47 ERA in 22 games/starts, and his 5.8% walk rate was hugely favorable. Ditto for his .191/.277/.326 slash line against left-handed hitters.
If there's a knock on Smyly, it's that he gets hurt a lot. He's been on the injured list at least once every year since 2016 and missed about a month this past season with a right oblique strain.
Smyly and the Cubs talked during the season about a multi-year extension, though it never yielded anything. Nevertheless, word out of Chicago is that he'd very much be welcomed back. Neither would be bad for the Pirates, but there are probably more obvious choices.
Wild cards
The pie-in-the-sky option should be Quintana, who was beloved in the Pirates clubhouse, had a 3.50 ERA in 20 starts and actually got better (2.01 ERA in 12) once arriving in St. Louis. Bringing Quintana back on, say, a three-year deal would send a significant message to the fan base.
But given his recent performance and track record, Quintana should be able to pick from a couple different destinations, and that will probably nudge the Pirates out of the mix. Seriously, could you blame Quintana for picking a playoff team over the Pirates?
The other starter fans would probably love to see here is left-hander Sean Manaea, who spent six years in Oakland (3.86 ERA in 128 starts) before his San Diego struggles in 2022.
Manaea had a career-high 4.96 ERA. His walk rate (7.5%) was also the second-highest of his career. However, his issues weren't necessarily wrapped around injuries or velocity.
After netting a .327 slugging percentage with his changeup in 2021, that number jumped to .528 last season. It's also telling how Manaea's strike-throwing — or lack of it — got him into trouble.
In his first 19 appearances, Manaea walked 42 and had a 4.25 ERA with 18 home runs allowed over 110 innings. Over his final 11 games, he walked just eight while pitching to a 6.56 ERA with 11 home runs allowed across 48 innings.
Did Manaea simply get blasted because he put too many balls over the heart of the plate, trying to avoid walks? Quite possibly.
The upshot is that Manea is only 30. It probably doesn't make sense for him to sign for multiple years, but the Pirates have plenty of evidence that the Anderson/Quintana plan can work.
