James Cleverly launched a last-minute and doomed attempt to stop supportive MPs from trying to manipulate the Tory leadership contest in his favour, after fearing the tactics could accidentally knock him out of the race.
The shadow home secretary’s narrow departure from the contest last week came as a huge shock across the party, coming just a day after he had topped a poll of MPs. As the one remaining centrist candidate, he seemed certain to pick up votes from supporters of one nation Conservative Tom Tugendhat, who had just been knocked out.
However, Cleverly actually lost support in the last ballot of Tory MPs, while Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, both seen as on the right of the party, narrowly secured more votes. Badenoch and Jenrick now face a final vote among party members.
Party sources told the Observer that Cleverly and his campaigners had detected that some supporters could back the candidate they believed he had the best chance of beating in the final vote among party members. As a result, Cleverly’s team spent hours contacting MPs, urging them to simply back their preferred candidate rather than risk disaster by trying to clear Cleverly’s path to victory.
Cleverly himself, along with supporters Andrew Stephenson and Gagan Mohindra, attempted to spread the warning in the hours leading up to Wednesday’s final ballot. The message was also spread to MPs at Boris Johnson’s book launch, which took place on the eve of the crucial vote.
Other supportive MPs were given call sheets of colleagues to ensure they were still backing Cleverly. Some said they had in mind a famous Margaret Thatcher poster that stated: “Don’t just hope for a better life. Vote for one.” In the end, some MPs appear to have opted to vote tactically. One ally said: “In the end, a small number of people didn’t listen. They’ll just have to live with it.”
Cleverly eventually secured 37 votes. Badenoch topped the ballot with 42 votes, with Jenrick on 41 votes. It leaves the parliamentary party completely split. Cleverly is not endorsing either of his rivals.
Lord Goodman of Wycombe, the former Tory MP and commentator, writes for the Observer online today that there are dangerous precedents for the party of such a split. “These percentages were eerily reminiscent of the 2001 Conservative leadership election, in which the eventual winner, Iain Duncan Smith, gained only 33% of his colleagues’s votes in the final ballot,” he writes. “His leadership didn’t end well.”
There was immediate anger and despair from many senior Tories after the result was announced, with several predicting that neither of the final two candidates would actually contest a general election. “This almost certainly means we’re going to have to go through it all again this side of an election,” said a former cabinet minister. “There’s no way those two people – either of them – can reunite the party, let alone the country. It’s almost the worst possible outcome.
“There’s always a chance that somebody can rise to the occasion and become a statesman when we least expect it. But in both these instances, these are people who have got flawed personalities. Kemi is divisive and aggressive and wrong about everything, and Jenrick is manipulative – and can be manipulated. They will be dancing on the fucking tables at Labour HQ.”
Some Tories fear both candidates will lead to the further erosion of their vote to the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. The Observer understands that the Lib Dems are already planning to use the result to their advantage. The party has drawn up a digital attack ad, for “blue wall” seats where they are opposing the Tories.
Under the banner “Meet the final two Conservative leadership candidates”, the ad lists Badenoch’s aside that some civil servants are so bad they should be in prison and her criticism of maternity pay. It also highlights Jenrick stating he would vote for Donald Trump if he were in the US, a decision as housing minister that helped a Tory donor avoid a tax bill, and his order to paint over cartoon murals in a child asylum-seeker unit.
Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said she believed the Tories risked “confining themselves to the political wilderness” by a move to the right under their new leader.
“It’s completely chaotic,” she said. “When we see how they’re operating behind the scenes, they’re just as chaotic in opposition as they were in government. The results of the leadership ballot just reinforce that really is the case.
“In many cases, there are lifelong Conservative voters who maybe consider themselves one nation Conservatives who look at our values of internationalism, environmentalism, and being pro-business and pro-public sector, who now identify more closely with us. If they carry on like this, it looks like the Conservative party has effectively given up on the blue wall.”
Tory members now have the final say over who will replace Rishi Sunak as leader. They have until the end of the month to cast their vote online. In the last vote of members in 2022, when they chose Liz Truss over Sunak, about 140,000 votes were cast. While polls have suggested Badenoch is most popular among members, the contest is impossible to call.
