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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer clash over homelessness and the UK economy at PMQs – as it happened

James Cleverly ​​Rishi Sunak Allie HodgkinsBrown Rwanda Mark Francois
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer at PMQs.
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer at PMQs. Photograph: Parliament Live

Afternoon summary

Keir Starmer at PMQs.
Keir Starmer at PMQs. Photograph: Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament/Reuters

Updated

As the home affairs committee hearing was ending, Diana Johnson, the committee chair, asked about the amount of money spent on the Rwanda scheme.

At the end of last week, the Home Office revealed that in addition to the initial £140m spent on the scheme, another £100m was paid in April and £50m is due to be paid next year.

In the Commons yesterday, Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, claimed, on the basis of an answer from James Cleverly, that he was admitting a further £100m would be spent in future years.

But Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, told Johnson he could just confirm the £100m paid this year and the £50m due to be paid next year. He said information about further payments in the future would be released in due course.

Updated

Immigration minister suggests people with family visas won't be subject to new, higher salary threshold when they renew

Tom Pursglove, the minister for legal migration, is now being asked about the changes to family visa rules. (See 1.38pm.)

Tim Loughton (Con) says James Cleverly, the home secretary, gave an interview saying the new rules would not be retrospectively applied. Is that correct?

Pursglove says applications already lodged will be treated under the rules as they are now.

And the Home Office does not intend to apply the rules retrospectively.

Q: So my constituent reapplying for a visa won’t have to meet the new threshold? And what happens when they have to reapply again in future.

Pursglove says, in the first case, the new rules will not apply. And, going ahead, he says rules will not be applied through a retrospective prism.

Loughton says he thinks Pursglove is saying that, for people with visas already, not just the first renewal, but all subsequent renewals will be under the old salary threshold, not the new one. Is that right?

Pursglove says he needs to be allowed to make the announcement in the proper way.

But, with a bit of nodding of his head, he seems to reassure Loughton that his understanding is correct.

Updated

Only 420 non-Albanian small boat arrivals have been returned home by Home Office since 2020, MPs told

The Rycroft letter also includes this charts showing the number of people arriving in the UK since 2020 who have been returned home, divided into Albanians and non-Albanians, and FNOs (foreign national offenders) and non-FNOs.

Rycroft supplied the information because he could not provide the figures when he was at the committee last month and Lee Anderson, the Tory party deputy chair, asked what the numbers were.

The chart shows that only 420 non-Albanians have been sent back.

Numbers for small boat returns since 2010
Numbers for small boat returns since 2010 Photograph: Home Office

Diana Johnson, the home affairs committee chair, told the committee earlier that the Home Office has said it has spent £22m on the Bibby Stockholm. (See 3.21pm.)

The letter from Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary, which she was quoting, makes it clear that this figure (£22,450,772, to be precise) only covers the “vessel accommodation services” part of the contract.

The home affairs committee has now published the latest letter it has received from Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office. Diana Johnson, the chair, has been referring to it during the hearing.

Back at the home affairs committee, the MPs were told that 132 of the 154 unaccompanied child asylum seekers who went missing from hotel accommodation were still missing.

Alison Thewliss (SNP) said this implied the Home Office did not care. If her children were missing, she would want to know where they were.

Tom Pursglove, the minister for legal migration, objected strongly. He said he and others at the Home Office did care about what has happened to these children.

Michael Gove to ease housebuilding targets for councils in England

Michael Gove will next week announce a relaxation of housing targets for local authorities in England, which developers worry will mean far fewer homes being built amid a housing crisis, Kiran Stacey reports.

James Daly (Con) is asking the questions.

Q: Under the Rwanda bill, it is possible for a UK minister to ignore an interim injunction saying a deportation cannot go ahead?

Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, says the PM has made it clear that he will not let a foreign court stop a flight leaving. And he says the bill makes it clear that decisons about what should happen are for a UK minister.

Home Office has spent £22m on Bibby Stockholm barge, MPs told

Diana Johnson says the Home Office has revealed that it is spending £22m on the Bibby Stockholm barge.

Q: How long is that for?

Pursglove says he does not have that figure.

Johnson says the Home Office could not give a value-for-money assessment, saying what that per person cost was.

Pursglove says the value for money assessment is being updated.

He says this is a more cost-effective way of providing accommodation.

Q: How do you know?

Pursglove says they are still looking at the figures.

UPDATE: The letter from Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary, which Johnson was quoting, makes it clear that the £22m figure (£22,450,772, to be precise) only covers the “vessel accommodation services” part of the contract.

Updated

Immigration ministers accused of being 'incredibly disrespectful' to home affairs committee by not having answers

At the home affairs committee Diana Johnson, the committee chair, is now having a row with Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration.

She says Tomlinson and his colleagues are being “incredibly disrespectful” in coming to the committee without answers.

Lee Anderson, the Tory deputy chair and a member of the committee, is now asking questions. He also accuses the Home Office team of being “disrespectful”.

He asks if Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary, and Simon Ridley, the interim second permanent secretary, have got into trouble over how badly prepared they were when they attended the committee last month.

Tomlinson says a follow-up letter has been sent. But if Anderson has not had a satisfactory answer yet, he should get one.

Q: Do you keep a weekly or monthly total of how many people have been returned? Is that a good idea?

Tomlinson says he thinks that would be a good idea.

Q: What good does it do clearing the asylum application backlog? Does that just lead to people claiming support from councils?

Pursglove says it is helpful to clear the backlog. That means asylum seekers can be removed from hotels.

Q: You have sent us figures saying only 420 non-Albanians have been returned since 2020. Is that acceptable?

Tomlinson says he wants that figure to be much higher.

Q: Do you support having ID cards?

Tomlinson says he is cautious about those proposals.

Updated

Back at the home affairs committee Tim Loughton (Con) asked about an exchange the committee had with Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary at the Home Office, last month when Rycroft could not explain what had happened to 17,000 people whose asylum applications had been withdrawn.

Dan Hobbs, director general for migration and borders at the Home Office, who is giving evidence with Tomlinson and Pursglove, said he still did not know where these people were. He said officials were still compiling the data.

Loughton said he was surprised that, two weeks later, the Home Office still did not have the information. Diana Johnson, the committee chair, said she agreed.

The Foreign Office has announced sanctions on seven further individuals linked to Hamas. David Cameron, the foreign secretary, said:

Hamas can have no future in Gaza. Today’s sanctions on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will continue to cut off their access to funding and isolate them further.

We will continue to work with partners to reach a long-term political solution so that Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace.

Updated

Diana Johnson, the chair of the home affairs committee, asks about information the committee has had from the Home Office. She says the figures show that the percentage of asylum claims approved went from 38% in the second quarter of this year to 67% in the third quarter.

The government is committed to clearling the so-called legacy backlog of applications – those dating from before June 2022, when the Nationality and Borders Act came into force – by the end of this year.

Pursglove cannot give Johnson a clear explanation but he says he expects the approval rate to fall again in the final quarter of the year.

Updated

Immigration ministers Michael Tomlinson and Tom Pursglove questioned by MPs

Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, and Tom Pursglove, the minister for legal migration, have just started giving evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.

There is a live feed here.

Updated

Politicians pay tribute to Mark Drakeford as he announces intention to stand down as Welsh first minister

James Cleverly, the home secretary, is often described at Westminster as a friendly guy, and he has paid a warm tribute to Mark Drakeford, who has announced today that he will stand down as Labour leader in Wales and Welsh first minister before Easter next year. Cleverly posted this on X:

I never really worked closely with Mark Drakeford, but on the times we did meet and talk I always found him to be a real gent.

Thank you for your public service, and all the best for the future.

But Cleverly’s colleagues at CCHQ were not feeling so charitable this morning. They sent out a press release with a quote from Richard Holden, the Tory chair, saying:

We thank Mark Drakeford for his service, but Labour’s 25 years of failure running Wales cannot be ignored … With falling schools standards, blanket 20mph speed limits, and blocking meal deals in supermarkets, the Labour government in Wales have been focused on short-term soundbites.

Many Labour figures have been paying tribute. Steven Morris quotes some of them in his story about Drakeford standing down, and here are some more.

From Keir Starmer:

From Gordon Brown, the former Labour PM:

Mark Drakeford has been a brilliant, compassionate and principled leader of Welsh Labour putting social justice right at the top of his mission. He deserves all our gratitude for his years of public service.

From Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader and shadow secretary for climate change and net zero:

From Kevin Brennan, the Cardiff West MP and shadow minister for victims:

SNP leaders have paid tribute too.

From Nicola Sturgeon, the former Scottish first minister:

Sending my very best wishes to @MarkDrakeford. He was without doubt one of the most decent, dedicated, principled, and impressive politicians I had the privilege of working with in my time as FM. He will be the hardest of acts to follow.

From Humza Yousaf, the Scottish first minister:

My thanks to @MarkDrakeford, a dedicated and principled public servant. A Labour politician willing to call out the damage of Brexit and stand up to Westminster austerity. An ally in defending devolution from repeated Westminster attacks. I wish him all the best for the future

Updated

At the post-PMQs Downing Street lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesperson did not deny reports saying MPs will not be asked to debate the remaining stages of the Rwanda bill until the week starting Monday 15 January. Asked about that potential timetable, the spokesperson replied:

We haven’t set out the timetable for that, so that is speculation as it stands. It is important that we do get this legislation passed.

Updated

Sunak says 'transitional arrangements' will help people affected by new £38,700 earnings threshold for family visas

Many families were shocked last week when the government announced a huge increase in the income threshold for anyone sponsoring a family visa. The new rules should mean that any Briton earning less than £38,700 will probably not be allowed to bring a foreign spouse to the UK.

During PMQs Stephen Timms, the Labour MP who chairs the work and pensions committee, said the marriage plans of thousands of couples were scuppered by these rules. He asked if families already in the UK would be exempt when their visas were renewed, or whether any transitional exemptions might be in place.

In his reply, Rishi Sunak implied the rules would be introduced gradually. He said:

We have a longstanding principle that anyone bringing dependants to the UK must be able to support them financially – we should not expect this to be at the taxpayer’s expense and the threshold hasn’t been raised in over a decade, it is right that we have now brought it in line with the median salary.

The family immigration route as he knows does contain provision for exceptional circumstances, but more generally it’s also right, and I can tell him, to look at transitional arrangements to ensure that they are fair and the Home Office are actively looking at this and will set out further information shortly.

Updated

PMQs – snap verdict

In his memoir Politics on the Edge, the former cabinet minister turned podcaster Rory Stewart says: “Nine years in politics had been a shocking education in lack of seriousness.” PMQs often shows why this is such a compelling critique of Westminster, but rarely more than today.

It’s the last PMQs before Christmas and so an element of end-of-term cheer was understandable, and expected. But the opening of the sesssion today was just bizarre. First, Rishi Sunak was cheered to the rafters by his MPs as if he were Churchill at the end of WW2, rather than a PM who had just managed to win a vote by postponing the big policy argument until the start of the next year.

Then, after a question about contaminated blood, he took a question from a Tory who seemed to think that the reason the tax burden is so high is all because of the economic modelling methodology used by the OBR. Sunak leaned into this enthusiastically, and started boasting about introducing the biggest tax cuts for a generation. Regular readers – and, indeed, any half-intelligent person who follows current affairs reasonably diligently – will of course know that the tax burden is approaching a postwar high.

Keir Starmer did not indulge Sunak’s denialism, but he did start off in festive, jokey mode and made some reasonably good gags about Tory disunity. This created a problem when, in his third question, he moved on to problems with the economy and public services. Sunak was able to hit back effectively with the line: “He talks about governing and he spent the first two questions talking about political tittle-tattle, what a joke.”

But Starmer then steered the conversation to homelessness, and he had a good jibe about the pomposity of the European Research Group.

Nearly 140,000 children are going to be homeless this Christmas, that is more than ever before, that is a shocking state of affairs and it should shame this government. Instead of more social housing, housebuilding is set to collapse. Instead of banning no-fault evictions, thousands of families are at risk of homelessness. Rather than indulge in his backbenchers swanning around in their factions and their star chambers pretending to be members of the mafia, when is he going to get a grip and focus on the country?

Sunak’s response was managerial (“tone-deaf”, Starmer called it), but it was in the next exchange where he came unstuck. A good rule in the Commons is that a reply should always match the tone of the question put, which means that sombre/emotive/non-partisan needs a response in kind. Starmer started talking about named families and individuals affected by homelessness and asked Sunak about an 11-year-old boy whose letter to Santa requested a forever home, and no new toys, “just my old toys out of storage”. It was heartbreaking. There was no easy reply available to Sunak, but he should at least have engaged emotionally. Instead, he just started hammering away about a vote in the Lords. This time he really was tone-deaf.

Here is the clip.

It was hard to tell whether the trap was deliberate or fortuitous – but Sunak fell into it all the same.

Updated

Chris Bryant (Lab) asks what’s worse: losing WhatsApp messages as a tech bro; losing £11bn to fraud as chancellor; presiding over the biggest fall in living standards; or desperately clinging to power when your time is up?

Sunak says he is delivering for the British people.

Updated

Daniel Kawczynski (Con) asks for money to help tackle flooding by the River Severn.

Sunak says the government will consider this.

Mary Glindon (Lab) says the Home Office has put out a contract to manage small boat arrivals until 2030. Doesn’t that show even the Home Office does not think the Rwanda plan will work.

Sunak says that is a mischaracterisation of what is happening.

John Spellar (Lab) says people think Britain isn’t working. When will Sunak get a grip?

Sunak says the cost of living is the most pressing issue for families, and the government has halved inflation. And it is cutting taxes too, he says.

James Morris (Con) says the Tories made a manifesto commitment in 2017 and 2019 to reform the Mental Health Act. People with autism are being kept in inappropriate accommodation for long periods, he says. There was no bill in the king’s speech. So will the PM meet MPs to discuss?

Sunak says the government does want to bring forward a bill when time allows.

Updated

Marsha de Cordova (Lab) asks about families who are cold and hungry at Christmas

Sunak says the government cares deeply about poor families. He lists some of the welfare measures put in place.

Jerome Mayhew (Con) asks Sunak if he agrees that a dentist who accepts NHS funding should continue with the NHS before going private.

Sunak says he agrees. A dentistry recovery plan will be published in due course.

Cat Smith (Lab) says a rogue company has walked away from hazardous waste in Lancaster. The council has had to pick up the tab for dealing with this. It could burn for months. Will the government help it?

Sunak says Lancaster city council and other bodies are dealing with this. He will ensure that the relevant minister understands the urgency of this, he says.

Sunak says he's willing to legislate to address DUP concerns about operation of Northern Ireland protocol

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader at Westminster, asks if the government will amend the Internal Market Act to guarantee Northern Ireland has full access to the British market.

Sunak says he accepts more needs to be done. He says the government is ready to legislate to protect Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market, alongside moves to restore power sharing at Stormont.

This implies a deal is close to changing the way the Northern Ireland protocol works, to address DUP concerns and get it to lift its boycott of Stormont. Whether this would involve significant changes to trading rules, or just cosmetic ones, is not clear from these exchanges.

Neil Hudson (Con) asks about youth travel. Will the government mandate councils to provide post-16 transport for students who need to travel to college?

Sunak says no child should be prevented from accessing education by lack of transport.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, asks Sunak what his message is for children in Gaza.

Sunak says no one wants to see the fighting go on. He says he wants a sustainable ceasefire, which would not allow Hamas to continue bombing Israel.

Flynn says it is shameful that the UK abstained in the UN vote, and why the 153 nations calling for a ceasefire were wrong.

Sunak says too many people have lost their lives. He says he has made this point to the Israeli PM.

Stephen Hammond (Con) asks Sunak to consider what he says are unfair VAT rules for on-street electric charging.

Sunak claims the government is on track to reach its charge points target. He says the government is reviewing guidance on this.

Starmer says, cooconed in No 10, Sunak is oblivious to what is happening. He ends wishing everyone a happy and peaceful new year. He asks the PM to join him.

Sunak says Starmer missed what he said at the start. He says the government is supporting working families. But Labour is just offering more borrowing, he says. The costs of net zero have been cut, inflation has been cut, and small boat crossings are down by a third, he says.

Starmer says children in homeless families are at a record high. He asks about a child homeless at Christmas, who wrote a letter saying he did not want new toys, just his old toys out of storage.

Sunak says, if Starmer cared about building homes, Labour would not have voted against the move to get rid of nutrient neutrality rules.

Updated

Starmer says, rather than indulging his backbenchers “pretending to be the mafia”, Sunak should be governing the country.

Sunak says the government has delivered a record number of new homes.

Starmer says there is an economy that is not being governed. Wouldn’t the government be better of fixing the problems it has caused instead of creating new ones.

Sunak says Starmer talks about issues, but has devoted his first two questions to Westminster tittle tattle. He says education standars are rising, but not in Labour-run Wales.

Starmer says everyone can see the Tories are in meltdown. His MPs have criticised him as inexperienced, arrogant, a really bad politicians. He asks Tory MPs to put their hands up if the comments came from them. And who said '“he’s got to go”. He says Sunak is holding a Christmas party next week. How’s the invite list looking?

Sunak says Starmer “should hear what they have to say about him”.

The shouting is very loud, and Sir Lindsay Hoyle tells MPs to be less noisy.

Keir Starmer mentions the death of an asylum seeker on the Bibby Stockholm. We must never let that happen again. And he says Mark Drakeford has been a titan of public service.

Christmas is a time of peace on earth and goodwill to all. Has anyone told the Tory party?

Sunak says Christmas is also a time for families, and under the Conservatives “we do have a record number of them”, he says (a reference to the so-called “five families”.)

Greg Smith (Con) says the OBR is habitually wong. Will the govenrment get a better system of modelling so we can have lower taxes?

Sunak says the OBR has to produce an assessment of its accuracy. The government has delivered the largest tax cuts for a generation, he says.

Mike Kane (Lab) asks about a constituent who is 74 and a victim of the contaminated blood scandal. When will he be compensated?

Sunak says this was an appalling tragedy. The government set up the inquiry, and has accepted the moral case for compensation. A Cabinet Office minister will reveal the next steps shortly.

Rishi Sunak is loudly cheered by his backbenchers as he stands up.

He starts by wishing people a happy new year, and thanks the armed forces, particularly those working abroad, and members of the emergency services.

And he pays tribute to Mark Drakeford.

Rishi Sunak leaving No 10 ahead of PMQs.
Rishi Sunak leaving No 10 ahead of PMQs. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Sunak faces Starmer at PMQs

Rishi Sunak is about to take PMQs. It will be the last of 2023.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

PMQs
PMQs Photograph: HoC

Mark Drakeford to step down as Wales first minister

Mark Drakeford has announced he is stepping down as the Welsh first minister with immediate effect and a leadership contest will take place, Steven Morris reports.

A reader asks:

We have heard about the government having a working majority of 56, but what is their effective majority, given that there are several complicating factors? There are a number of Conservative members who have had the whip withdrawn, but might be expected to support the government on this issue; there is one Conservative MP who has been told not to attend; and Sinn Fein are included in the totals but never attend. It seems that these factors mean that there would need to be more than 29 rebels to defeat the government.

The figure 56, for the size of the government’s working majority, comes from the table on the House of Commons website. It makes allowance for the fact that the speaker and deputy speakers, by convention, do not vote, and for the fact that the seven Sinn Féin MPs do not vote because they have not taken their seats.

But this figure reflects what the government’s majority would be if all remaining Conservative MPs voted on one side, and all the other MPs in the Commons voted on the other side.

But those other MPs include 18 MPs are now classed as independent because they have had the whip withdrawn. They don’t operate as a group, but if they did they would be able to outvote the Lib Dems (who have 15 MPs). Of those 18, seven were elected as Conservative MPs. Some have hopes of having the whip restored, and are minded to be helpful to No 10; some don’t. But, instinctively, they are all more aligned with the Conservatives than with the opposition, and they tend to vote with the government. Last night, in the second reading vote, five of the ex-Tory independents voted with the government.

If you treat all seven as government votes, the size of the government’s working majority rises to 70. If you settle on five as a more realistic figure, the working majority is 66. Either way, as you say, the realistic “working majority” is larger than the Commons website implies.

Rishi Sunak “has been pencilled in as a surprise guest at a political festival organised by Giorgia Meloni’s rightwing Brothers of Italy on Saturday”, the Financial Times is reporting.

In his story, George Parker says:

In appearing at the Atreju festival, Sunak would follow in the footsteps of former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon and Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán, who have both appeared in the past.

Sunak’s political relationship with Meloni has blossomed during 2023. At a meeting in Downing Street in April he told his Italian counterpart that their two countries were “very aligned” in values.

Parker says Sunak has not yet confirmed that he is going, and that his attendance will depend on what “other commitments'” he has.

Cleverly suggests government wants to get European court of human rights to change way it operates, rather than leave it

Whether or not the Rwanda bill is compliant with international law remains a matter of dispute. Some distinguished lawyers says it isn’t, and that was the conclusion of a briefing from the joint committee on human rights yesterday. Officially, the government claims the bill is complaint. But the bill contains a section 19(1)(b) statement on the face of it from James Cleverly, the home secretary, saying he cannot be sure it is compatible with the European convention on human rights, and his language has been slightly evasive. In the Commons yesterday he spoke about the bill being “within the framework of international law” – which may not be quite the same thing.

In his interview on the Today programme interview this morning, Cleverly signalled that, while not wanting to leave the European court of human rights (ECtHR), the government does want to change the way it operates.

Referring to the court and other international institutions, he said:

What we have seen is an unprecedented and new challenge. The scale of organised criminal people smuggling is unprecedented. It is something that has washed across north America, across Europe. We have got to take action.

I [gave] a speech when I was foreign secretary at the Chatham House thinktank about my view that these postwar institutions, incredibly important, they need to survive, but they also need to reform in order to survive. The circumstances that we are seeing, digitally enabled organised criminal gangs smuggling on an industrial scale, is new. We have to respond to that novelty. And some of those postwar institutions – incredibly important, I desperately want them to survive – have got to recognise the tectonic plates are shifting, and we have to respond to that.

Asked why he did not support Tory rightwingers who just want the UK to leave the ECtHR, Cleverly suggested it was better to get the court to change. He said:

Sometimes countries are in dispute [with the ECtHR]. That is not unusual at all. In fact, that is the norm, rather than the exception. So it may well be that we find ourselves in dispute with international institutions. That happens a lot.

Cleverly said the UK had already got the court to reform in some respects its use of emergency injunctions. The first flight to Rwanda was blocked by an injunction from the Strasbourg court, but, partly in response to lobbying from the UK, the court announced last month some changes to the way these will operate. Cleverly said:

We made the case that the way they had been used was not appropriate in our view and the ECtHR have made changes because of our intervention. So you can both be in dispute with an international court, and you can also change an international court. We might need to do both.

This is also an argument that David Cameron, the new foreign secretary, made in the House of Lords last week, citing his experience of dealing with the court over voting rights for prisoners.

Sunak's favourability ratings have hit new low, poll suggests

Rishi Sunak’s favourability ratings have hit a new low, according to new polling by YouGov.

Rishi Sunak’s net favourability rating slips to a new low of -49 (fieldwork 11-12 Dec)

Favourable: 21% (-5 from 28-29 Nov)

Unfavourable: 70% (+5)

After a year as PM, Rishi Sunak’s net popularity has now fallen to the same level as his party (both -49)

By contrast, Keir Starmer currently stands at -22 and Labour at -14

Favourability of senior British politicians (11-12 Dec)

Keir Starmer: -22

James Cleverly: -29

Suella Braverman: -46

Jeremy Hunt: -47

Rishi Sunak: -49

*Politicians with >50% “don’t know” scores*

Rachel Reeves: -10

Wes Streeting: -11

Victoria Atkins: -15

Updated

Sam Freedman, the Prospect columnist, had a good take on Rishi Sunak’s options for the Rwanda bill on X last night. Here are his main posts.

Right so Sunak now has two strategic options.

1. He strengthens the bill and gets the GB News current and future presenters roster to vote with him but makes losing in Lords/courts more likely (and Commons if “moderates” can locate their spines).

2. He does nothing and calls the right’s bluff. Turns third reading into a confidence vote and forces them to choose between supporting him and losing their jobs (in many cases).

3. He offers a tiny token gesture to the right that is largely meaningless and hopes they take the out.

I’m guessing he tries 3 and then goes to 2 if that looks like it will fail. Then goes to 1 if it looks like that will fail.

But either way plenty of opportunity for chaos and another month or so in which the government does not talk about or indeed do anything about the things that concern most voters.

Sadiq Khan warns plans to cut migration will trigger London recruitment crisis

Sadiq Khan has warned that ministers’ plans to cut legal migration will lead to a “full blown recruitment crisis” in London, with vacancies in hospitality alone still higher than they were pre-pandemic. Daniel Boffey has the story.

Cleverly says it will 'take some time' before Rwanda bill becomes law

When Rishi Sunak announced that he would respond to the supreme court judgment saying the Rwanda deportation policy was unlawful with a new bill, he described it as emergency legislation, implying it would be rushed through parliament.

But that is not happening. Although the bill has had a second reading, its remaining Commons stages are not due to be debated until January. And, in an interview this morning, James Cleverly, the home secretary, said it would take “some time” for the bill to become law. He told Sky News:

We’ve got to get this bill through the House of Commons and the House of Lords. That will take some time … We’re going to move quickly but we’re going to make sure we get this right.

James Cleverly rejects claims Rwanda bill at risk of being killed off in Commons votes next year

Good morning. James Cleverly, the home secretary, has been doing a victory lap media round this morning after the government’s bigger-than-expected win in the Rwanda bill vote last night. Tory rebels abstained, rather than voted against, and there were “only” 29 of them – which is barely enough to put the government’s majority at risk, and quite small in the scale of Tory rebellions over recent years.

But the jeopardy for Rishi Sunak is far from over. The rebels were only abstaining because they believe that they can get significant concessions to the bill when it is debated again over two days in January, and the gap between what the rightwingers are demanding (set out in the European Research Group’s legal “star chamber analysis) and the minimal tinkering Sunak seems to be offering is considerable. After the votes on amendments, there will be a final third reading vote on the bill as a whole and at that point some rightwingers say they will try to vote it down if they still don’t like it. Some Tory centrists have also said they will no longer vote for the bill if it’s been subject to an ERG rewrite.

That is why most of the front pages today claim the parliamentary threat to Sunak remains very real. When the Guardian, the Daily Mail and the Daily Express all end up using more or less exactly the same headline, there’s a good chance it’s right.

And here are some other headlines on the same theme.

But in his interviews this morning Cleverly played down suggestions that the bill might be killed off in the new year. On Sky News Kay Burley asked him to respond to this comment from one unnamed Tory rebel quoted in reports this morning.

This bill has been allowed to live another day. But without amendments it will be killed next month. It is now up to the government to decide what it wants to do.

Cleverly did not accept the bill was at risk. Referring to Mark Francois, the chair of the European Research Groups, one of the rightwing Tory factions pushing for a tougher bill, he said:

I will talk to Mark and I’ll talk to others, of course, to understand their thinking on this and try to harvest their ideas to make things better.

But I can’t see if someone’s got a concern that the bill might not be as strong as they would like, killing the bill doesn’t strike me as the best way of doing that, because if the bill isn’t on the statute books it can’t possibly succeed.

He also rejected claims some of his Conservative colleagues don’t want the bill to work. He said:

No, this is absolutely wrong. The Conservative party is united on the desire to get this right and to stop the boats. The Labour party’s position is to try and wreck it.

I will post more from his interviews soon.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Michelle Donelan, the science secretary, gives evidence to the Commons science committee about AI governance and other matters.

12pm: Rishi Sunak faces Keir Starmer at PMQs.

2.30pm: Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, and Tom Pursglove, the minister for legal migration, give evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.

4pm: Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, gives evidence to the Commons health committee.

If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.

Updated

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