You thought this was going to be easy?
The Bears came into the NFL Scouting Combine in a terrific position to jump-start their rebuild under general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus after parlaying a 3-14 season into the No. 1 overall draft pick.
For a draft without a Peyton Manning or even an Andrew Luck at the top, the Bears were in a fortuitous situation, with two potentially generational defensive-line prospects in Georgia’s Jalen Carter and Alabama’s Will Anderson and at least one quarterback in Alabama’s Bryce Young who could elicit the kind of frenzy that could create a bidding war — or at least a bidding skirmish — for the No. 1 pick. Even dream scenarios — like trading down twice for even more picks, or acquiring proven veterans — were possible.
Poles was ready for a “curveball” from the football gods, and sure enough, he got it before he even reached the batter’s box. Georgia’s Carter — arguably the best individual option as a potentially dominant 3-technique defensive tackle — put his draft stock in limbo after being arrested Wednesday for reckless driving and racing related to a fatal car crash that killed a teammate and a recruiting staffer.
Carter flew from Indianapolis to Athens, Georgia, on Wednesday and was booked for the two misdemeanors at 11:33 p.m. He posted $4,000 bail and was released after only 16 minutes. Carter returned to the combine Thursday to be measured and finish his team interviews. He won’t participate in drills — a decision he made weeks ago.
How does this affect the Bears? At this point, Carter’s arrest is just a curveball, not a devastating blow to the Bears’ draft plans. Regardless of Carter’s draft availability or risk factor, the Bears still have the No. 1 pick. They still have a defensive player in Anderson who most draft analysts feel is worthy of that pick. And trading down still figures to be a viable option.
But some of Poles’ cherished flexibility with the No. 1 pick might be lost. On paper, if Carter is not available or deemed too big of a risk, it ruins what many feel is the Bears’ best trade option — a deal with the Colts at No. 4 that would give the Bears multiple picks and still allow them to get either Carter or Anderson at No. 4. Without Carter as an option, the Cardinals at No. 3 could take Anderson, leaving the Bears to go to Plan B.
Pending the adjudication of Carter’s legal matter, the biggest question for the Bears is whether they can afford to take a risk on a player with a confirmed red flag. Despite his current troubles, Carter still could end up being an Aaron Donald-like defensive tackle — and a responsible, high-character pro.
That’s a tougher roll-of-the-dice at No. 1 or No. 4 than later in the first round. But that’s why Poles gets paid the big bucks. The Bears once took Curtis Enis over Randy Moss because of character concerns and regretted it.
Then again, the Carter situation could push the Bears into a scenario that still works out best — trading with the Panthers at No. 9. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah surmised that a deal with the Panthers would yield the No. 9 and No. 39 picks in this year’s draft, a first-round pick in 2024 and a first-round pick in 2025.
The beauty of that deal is that the future picks could set up the Bears for a shot at top players in next year’s draft, including Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., whom ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said last season is better than any player in this draft.
So while the Carter situation complicates the Bears’ draft, it doesn’t diminish the opportunity they have. Let’s put it this way: Even with Carter in limbo, the Bears’ worst-case scenario as it stands today is sitting at No. 1 and drafting Will Anderson. They’ve done much worse.
