In the darkened amphitheatre of a south Auckland conference centre, a youth choir swayed, as crowds waited for the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, to take the stage. “Give me one more chance,” they sang, in a medley featuring the Jackson 5’s I Want You Back. “Won’t you please let me back in your heart.”
It was an apt-enough score for the annual Labour conference, with the party facing a steep uphill road to persuade New Zealanders to return them to office for another three years. “We are not done yet,” Ardern told the party faithful, as delegates sought to map a pathway to election victory in an increasingly sour economic and political landscape. Three days of speeches and discussions built a picture of a party girding itself for a bitterly fought campaign: speeches were laced with jabs at centre-right opposition leader Christopher Luxon, warnings of the prospect of gains rolled back under a National government, and encouragement to stay the course under fire.
“I would be a poor carving indeed if I flinched at the tap of a chisel,” said Kelvin Davis, deputy leader of the party, quoting Ngāpuhi chief Te Ruki Kawiti as he called for supporters to keep the faith and not shy away from difficult policy decisions on the climate crisis. “We will receive more taps from the chisels of the opposition and our critics,” Davis said. “But we cannot, we must not, waver.”
Labour loses ground
An 8.3% rise in grocery costs, rising inflation, high mortgage rates, and a post-lockdown backlash have carved chunks off the party – and Ardern’s – once-mountainous popularity. On Sunday evening, as conference attendees caught flights home, the latest polling would return them firmly to earth: a Reid-Newshub research poll had Labour’s share of the national vote down 5.9 points, to 32.3%, the lowest result since Ardern became leader in 2017. The right bloc had tipped over 50%, with National on 40.7%, and Act up 3.6 points to 10%. That result would place a National-Act coalition comfortably into power – the pair would hold 65 seats against a possible Labour, Greens, and Māori Party coalition on 55.
“You will have heard it said endlessly over the last three years, that it’s been a tough time. And it has – undeniably,” Ardern said in her closing speech. “Sometimes people ask me at a more personal level, how I keep going. Two reasons: because of a powerful intervention otherwise known as a cup of tea. And because I am an optimist.”
This year, that buoyancy will face its test. Even as leaders focused on a message of optimism and sought to galvanise members, they warned of more difficulties ahead: Ardern predicted “economic storm clouds brewing”, and an international outlook likely to get worse before it gets better. “Global volatility still lies in front of us and 2023 will likely, in many ways, be more difficult than this year,” she said. “That brings uncertainty and anxiety. I understand that.”
The party has spent the last few months trying to swiftly move on from what may have been its greatest achievement of this term – a Covid response that let New Zealand to ride out the pandemic with low death tolls and a stable economy. “We’ve done more than manage crises – we’ve made progress despite them,” Ardern said. With much of the last two years devoured by pandemic governance and legislation, it is now tasked with pushing through a policy agenda in the year before the election, and convince the public that its talents lie in day-to-day governance as well as crisis response.
“We can’t get away from the reality that there has been a lot to distract from that core program of work which the government was hoping to achieve initially,” said council of trade unions national secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges. “There have been some delays – Covid has been the biggest one – that had very real implications for the ability of the government to move as fast as they wanted to.”
For the base, the party could tout some recent, substantial gains for workers: newly passed fair pay agreements legislation, to allow sector-wide collective bargaining and boost wages and entitlements for the country’s lowest earners. Near-record low unemployment at 3.3%. Increased paid parental leave and worker sick days. Average hourly wages up 7.4% – inching ahead of inflation.
But looking ahead, the party is shackled to a series of controversial policies: the three waters policy to reform governance of water supplies has metamorphosed into a culture war debate over co-governance with Māori; a world-first effort to price farming emissions faces farmer opposition, and reform of the resource management act to enable housing density and climate adaptation risks provoking the ire of homeowners. Many of those reforms – as well as updated hate speech laws, a public media merger, and centralisation of the district health system – are focused on solving long term, structural and creeping problems. But few will offer voters a sense of immediately tangible benefits and excitement.
To offer any future election sweeteners, the government faces a difficult balancing act: how to assist those struggling with the rising cost of living, while avoiding the accusation of inflationary spending. Ardern concluded the conference with an announcement that the government would expand discounted childcare, with a new $189m package to support lower income earners and solo parents. The government estimates under the scheme that 54% of all New Zealand families with children will be eligible for subsidised childcare, including almost all sole parents. Under the new scheme, a solo parent working full-time for $26 an hour would receive $452 a week in childcare subsidies – an increase of $92 a week.
Election violence fears
Also shadowing the gathering was the prospect of a bitterly fought election year ahead. Police, officials and experts monitoring online disinformation networks have all reported a marked rise in harassment, vitriol, vandalism and targeted death threats toward politicians – perhaps most acutely toward the figure of Ardern herself.
“The campaign next year is going to have some elements we’d rather not see,” outgoing Labour party president Claire Szabo told delegates. “Attacks, vandalism, harassment, unlawful behaviour, and insidious trolling.” The party would offer sessions on bystander training and de-escalation techniques, and Szabo said her goal was to have a trained welfare officer in every electorate to look after the safety of candidates and volunteers.
Ardern had launched her first campaign with a promise of “relentless positivity” and an end to acrimonious politics. This year, the party had its opposition clearly in its sights: deputy prime minister Grant Robertson dubbed its leader “Liz Luxon”, painting the National head as Liz Truss’s top-tax-rate-cutting ideological soulmate. Asked by reporters if the government was too focused on its opponents, he said: “Not at all: this is an election.”
“We’re heading into an election year and there is a choice to be made.”
In past years, Labour’s three-word election slogans focused on what they hoped to build and secure: “let’s do this” in 2017, followed by “let’s keep moving” and “we’ve got this” in 2020. While the party has not released a formal slogan for 2023, Ardern finished her final speech with the phrase of someone ready for a fight.
“I cannot tell you what might come our way next, because those are predictions I have learnt to stay well away from,” she declared to the room of cheering supporters. “I can tell you that Labour is the party who can tackle it head on.”
“Bring it on.”
