The Pacific Ocean is experiencing an unusually severe hurricane season, with weeks of persistent storm activity and several months still remaining in the cycle.
An uninterrupted sequence of tropical storms has developed in recent weeks, driven by El Niño conditions that emerged in June. Higher-than-average ocean temperatures have subsequently disrupted global weather patterns across much of the world.
"It’s ramping up to be perhaps the strongest El Niño on record," said University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy.
Storm counts in the eastern Pacific have already outpaced an average season. Hurricane Polo has been drenching Mexico's Pacific coast while shifting between Category 4 and 5 strength, and Hawaii faces potential catastrophic flooding from the growing Tropical Storm Nolo.
When El Niño forms, the low-level easterly surface winds across the Pacific weaken or reverse direction. This alters the jet stream and contributes to record atmospheric temperatures, intense droughts, wildfires, and reduced freshwater availability worldwide.
These climate phenomena occur unpredictably every two to seven years on average and range from mild to severe. McNoldy anticipates the current pattern will peak this coming winter and persist through 2027.
"It doesn’t turn off right away," he said.
Although Pacific storm numbers are surging, El Niño typically suppresses storm formation across the Atlantic Ocean, where tropical activity has remained virtually silent this year.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s National Weather Service, noted that both the eastern and central Pacific regions have logged four more named storms than average, despite having over two months remaining in the hurricane season.
Historical data from 1991 to 2020 shows an average of 15 named storms per season in the eastern Pacific, which spans from May 15 to Nov. 30.
Exceeding that figure by September is unusual, Rosencrans pointed out: "That's a different story," he said.
Adding to the severity, three Pacific hurricanes have reached Category 5 intensity this season, tying a record set during another El Niño year in 2002, Rosencrans explained.
The most active season on record for the eastern Pacific occurred in 1992 with 25 named storms, while the central Pacific recorded its peak of 14 storms in 2015.
During that 2015 season, the eastern Pacific produced nine major storms of Category 3 or higher without causing any reported fatalities. The El Niño pattern directed those storms further west, allowing them to remain over open ocean waters throughout their cycle.
In contrast, a powerful El Niño in 1997 brought Hurricane Pauline across Mexico’s Pacific shore, leaving hundreds dead. That same year, Tropical Storm Nora delivered rare heavy rainfall to landlocked southwestern Arizona, while a December storm in Southern California triggered severe flooding that swept cars into storm channels and prompted mobile home evacuations.
In 1998, El Niño was blamed for devastating floods along China's Yangtze River that killed 4,150 people.
Hawaii has faced repeated threats in recent weeks, having already suffered damage from two hurricanes over the past month. Hurricanes Lala in August and Lowell in early September combined to destroy or damage more than 510 homes and caused $168 million in damage to public infrastructure, alongside $21.5 million in destruction to 38 schools from Lala.
If Tropical Storm Nola follows forecasts and strengthens dramatically as it tracks south of the islands, it will mark the third system to impact the state. Weather forecasters warn the storm could drop several feet of rain across parts of the region.
The state was already recovering from severe March rainfall—the worst flooding in two decades—and a magnitude-6.0 earthquake in May, leading Gov. Josh Green to say this year has been "unlike anything I can recall."
Two hurricanes came within 200 miles (320 kilometers) of Hawaii in 1957, an occurrence that did not repeat for over half a century until similar threats occurred in 2014, 2016, 2018, and now this year.
While meteorologists frequently monitor "preparedness fatigue"—where residents gear up for storms that fail to materialize—John Bravender, a weather service warning coordination meteorologist, explained that 2026 has introduced a distinct form of exhaustion in Hawaii.
"The fact that we’ve had these damaging impacts that keep happening, and as we’re recovering from them, we have to get ready for the next event — that’s a new one that really drains the resources and leads to this overall sense that this is a very busy hurricane season for us," he said.
Island residents understand the risks and are growing more accustomed to preparing.
"I think community members realize how dangerous the weather can be, how important it is for them to be self-sufficient, have food, water and also look out for their neighbors," Bravender added.
