For many on Wednesday, standing in Westminster, listening to President Zelensky address the crowd, beams of sunlight filtering through the high windows, it was an historic occasion. Later this month marks one year of Ukrainian blood being split, their women brutalised, civilians tortured, their cities flattened and husbands and brothers dying on the battlefield.
Their civilian death toll, as Zelensky painfully knows, will dramatically mount in the coming months, as Vladimir Putin enters a new phase in his war on Ukraine. Life is cheap for him, and the source of his young recruits cruelly plentiful.
Putin has mobilised the Russian economy for a long war. In Europe, we have not. “Ammunition, ammunition, ammunition,” was the Ukrainian’s repeated request yesterday to Europe.
Zelensky knows how to use his words and his throaty growl to great effect. He knows without our continued support, Ukraine will fail. And Russia will win. For Bob Seely, the Tory MP, and chair of the Russia and Ukraine parliamentary groups, the urgency is real: “We made the mistake of overestimating Russian strength and firepower at the beginning of this war, but it would be a mistake again to underestimate them now.”
Ukraine spent eight years building up its defences prior to the February 2022 Russian invasion — it had 900 battle tanks, far outstripping our contingent — but after a year of bitter fighting, and the country’s infrastructure under constant bombardment, Ukraine is reliant on the West to keep it in the fight. “Without us sending weapons, they won’t be able to keep going for long,” says Jack Watling, of the Royal United Service Institute. “As just one example, they can’t make barrels for their old Soviet Union howitzers any more.”
To date, it is largely the US, not Europe, arming the Ukrainians. Their support is vital. The Americans have been smart enough to ensure that the aid they send Ukraine also funnels business towards their multi-billion-dollar defence industry. That doesn’t mean if the situation changes in the Indo-Pacific region, their attention may not switch elsewhere. Or, if the war drags on, the American electorate might tire. Europe must thus keep its resolve, look to ensure more weapon production here, and work behind the scenes to keep America firmly on side.
The best opportunity for stemming the brutal blood loss is also this year. It requires from us a mighty push of diplomacy. The best outcome ahead is the Russians are forced by Ukraine out of both Ukraine and Crimea. Second best, the Kremlin under duress agrees that tactically the negotiating table is the right choice. For the West this means consistently arming the Ukrainians, helping them push Russia back, as they achieved in Kherson and in the Kremlin’s failed attempt to take Kyiv.
“The West can force Ukraine to the negotiating table anytime, their influence in this war is vast,” continues Watling. “But if they did this, it would lend immediate leverage to the Russian side. If the Kremlin think they can win, or at least gain enough upper hand to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table half-beaten, and keep their sizeable land grabs, they won’t stop... If they think that in a year’s time there is a chance we capitulate, they won’t stop.”
If, however, the outlook for the Russians this year is that they face losing more territory and more men while the West carries on sending Ukraine what it needs, then the negotiating table will look more attractive.
And if Ukraine negotiates at all, it needs the greater leverage. Zelensky is clear, Ukrainians won’t stop fighting until Crimea is under their control again. But it may be enough in the coming months for the Russians to fear that he can take it back, to provide the leverage Zelensky needs to negotiate.
The longer Russia digs in, the greater the risk. That is why we must continue with full-throttle help. Germany hesitated for weeks over whether to send armoured tanks, only agreeing in late January to send two Leopard tank battalions after the Americans provided US tanks.
At the time, Chancellor Scholz stressed that Germany would not actively engage in the war but would continue to seek to “prevent an escalation between Russia and Nato…” No one wants Nato dragged in, especially with a threat of nuclear weapons.
The danger is that by not acting fast enough, we lengthen this war. Whether it’s next year or in two years’ time, if we hold together, Zelensky will be here celebrating victory.
It’s a shame arch-rebel Madonna gave in
Madonna, for me like many of my generation, was the ultimate female pin-up of my junior years. I loved her in Desperately Seeking Susan, then on stage in Brixton aged 20, and watched her entranced, a few years from that, in the achingly hip Pharmacy bar, during her Ray of Light tour.
She was charismatic, beautiful and outrageous. She still is. But I don’t hold with her argument this week that we were displaying misogyny and ageism when some sniped at her smoothed and plumped face. She blamed the lighting, not medical enhancement at how she looked, yet her Instagram feed tells a similar story.
I’ve seen Julianne Moore and Kristin Scott Thomas up close recently, and they are both in their 60s. They have not tried to erase ageing on their elegant faces. I don’t wish for a second that Madonna stops re-inventing, but she is bending to the very ageism that assails us women.
She can have any lifestyle she wants, the more rebellious, the better. But I wanted to watch her age, luxuriate in her beauty as she advanced through the decades, because that helps us know we can too. Not see her bend to society’s expectation that only youthful, unlined skin is how women can hold attention.
Leo knows another way to beat ageing
For Leonardo Di Caprio, there is another way to beat ageing — don’t let the girlfriends age with you. Now 48, his acting gets better, while his girlfriends get younger. Their average age to date is 22. He’s just had to deny his girlfriend is a 19-year-old Israeli model. It seems Leo doesn’t have to worry about Botox, facelifts, and endless gym sessions as cynically he’s concluded it’s only women who have to tick the youth box.
