In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched its largest-ever attack on Iran. Airstrikes involving more than 200 aircraft targeted nuclear and missile facilities, as well as key figures in the Iranian military and nuclear programme leadership. The attack, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion”, appears to have been supported on the ground by Israeli agents operating drones positioned deep within Iranian territory.
In one sense, this attack has been a long time coming. Over the past 15 years, Israel has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran, arguing that Tehran harbours nuclear weapons aspirations that pose an existential threat to the Israeli state. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said as much in a televised address announcing the same-day military operation in which he placed the nuclear issue front and centre: “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponisation program.” But why has Israel chosen to act now?
Clearly, we are looking at a dynamic situation from the outside in, but there are some important points worth considering. First, events over the past 12 months or so have undermined Iran’s ability to deter adversaries, which has left the regime exposed. Israel’s response to an Iranian missile attack in October, for example, seriously degraded Iran’s air defences as well as missile production capabilities. This created weaknesses that Israel has since exploited in its renewed military campaign.
