Egypt
Egypt, which shares a border with Israel and Gaza, has long had a complicated relationship with Hamas, not least due to its genesis as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. While Cairo signed a formal peace treaty with Israel in 1978 at Camp David, the Egyptian public has tended to be more pro-Palestinian than successive Egyptian regimes – save for the brief-lived government led by the Muslim Brotherhood that was toppled in 2013. While Cairo has acted as an interlocutor between Hamas and Israel in times of conflict, Egypt has long been wary about a desire by some on the Israeli right for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza, pointing to the Egyptian administration of the coastal strip from 1948-67.
Jordan
Like Egypt, Jordan has signed a formal peace treaty with Israel – in 1994. Complicating Jordan’s lens on Israeli-Palestinian issues is the fact that more than 2 million Palestinians are registered as refugees in Jordan, most of them also enjoying full Jordanian statehood, while an even larger percentage of the population can trace their roots to Palestinian origin. The Waqf, the organisation that administers the Islamic institutions around al-Haram al-Sharif (known to Jews as the Temple Mount) in Jerusalem, is an organ of the Jordanian government, drawing Amman into conflicts around the site. Like Cairo, Israel tends to be sensitive to the views of Jordan.
Lebanon
Israel has fought two substantial conflicts involving its northern neighbour, most recently in 2006 during the devastating war with the Shia organisation Hezbollah, one of the most formidable of Iran’s proxies. Israel has long worried about fighting a two-front war with Hamas and Hezbollah. Long-term political sclerosis and economic collapse in Lebanon have acted as a limiting factor on Hezbollah recently. While Hezbollah has permitted rocket fire primarily by Palestinian factions in Lebanon in the past two weeks, it remains unclear whether Hezbollah is preparing for its own offensive in the event of a ground invasion of Gaza or simply signalling to its supporters.
Syria
Since the outbreak of the war in Syria, Israel has conducted a large number of strikes in the country, primarily aimed at supply routes and storage sites for weapons from Iran, which it claims are destined for Hezbollah and Hamas. While the direct threat to Israel from Syria has appeared to have retreated somewhat in the past couple of years, Iranian proxies and assets have long been recorded operating in Syria. A week ago, however, Israel launched missile strikes on Syria’s two main airports in Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo, damaging the landing strips at the two airports perhaps with a view to preventing the runways being used for military traffic in the coming weeks.
Iran
Any regional response to an Israeli ground invasion is likely to be defined by Tehran, which has reportedly warned Israel that it may feel compelled to intervene in the event of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Iran, a long-term foe of Israel, has typically used proxies to drive its interventions, hence the interest in groups allied to it around the Middle East. While Iran possesses the missile capability to strike Israel (as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq did during the Gulf war) the pre-placement of US and other western allied naval assets in the region in recent days appears aimed to signal the consequences of an intervention from Iran.
Iraq
The resurgence of attacks on US bases in Iraq this week by Iranian allied groups signals another complication. The US currently has about 2,500 troops stationed at three bases in Iraq alongside about 1,000 soldiers from other countries in the international coalition set up to fight the Islamic State jihadist group.
The attacks come after factions loyal to Iran have stepped up threats against the US. One of them, the Hezbollah Brigades, demanded that the US “leave” Iraq, “otherwise they will taste the fires of hell”.
Yemen
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have fired drones successfully deep into Saudi Arabia aimed primarily at oil facilities. Whether they have the range or capacity to reach Israel is another question. However, Houthi missiles and drones are capable of threatening shipping in the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. The interception by a US warship on Thursday of missiles and drones launched from Yemen – which a Pentagon spokesperson said had been launched “potentially towards targets in Israel” – has raised the stakes.
