The possibility of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia is causing concern and fear among people on both sides of the border. Many view this potential conflict as an inevitable consequence of Israel's ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. The consequences of such a war would be devastating, potentially surpassing any previous conflicts experienced by either side. As tensions escalate, both Israel and Hezbollah have been preparing for another war, while the United States has been engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.
In 2006, a month-long war erupted between Israel and Hezbollah. The conflict began when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid. Israel responded with a full-scale air and ground offensive, aiming to free the hostages and cripple Hezbollah's military capabilities. The war resulted in extensive damage to south Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, with Israeli bombings and Hezbollah rocket attacks causing significant casualties on both sides. Ultimately, a United Nations resolution called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and the establishment of a demilitarized zone on Lebanon's side of the border.
Despite the presence of UN peacekeepers, Hezbollah continues to operate in the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of violating its airspace and occupying parts of its land. The recent escalation between Israel and Hezbollah has raised concerns about the probability of another war. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that a war between the two would be a total disaster, and both sides have engaged in daily cross-border strikes since the Hamas attack on Israel in October.
Israel has carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon, while Hezbollah has also engaged in retaliatory actions. Casualties have been reported on both sides, and tens of thousands of people have been displaced. Israeli political and military leaders have conveyed to Hezbollah that war is increasingly likely unless the militants withdraw from the border. However, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has not explicitly threatened to initiate war but warned of a fight 'without limits' if Israel were to do so.
Both Israel and Hezbollah have developed and expanded their capabilities since the 2006 war, but they also face internal vulnerabilities. Lebanon has been grappling with a severe economic crisis, which has weakened public institutions and essential services. The Lebanese army and electrical grid have been severely affected, while the health system struggles to cope. Additionally, the country hosts over 1 million Syrian refugees. In contrast, Israel is experiencing economic and social strains due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, with estimates suggesting it will cost over $50 billion, or 10% of national economic activity, by 2024.
In anticipation of a potential war, Lebanon has adopted an emergency plan that projects the displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days. International organizations have been relied upon to provide support, but many existing programs are already struggling to continue. Aid groups like Doctors Without Borders have stockpiled medical supplies and backup fuel for hospital generators in vulnerable areas. Israel has evacuated tens of thousands of residents from towns near the border, where warning time for rocket launches is minimal.
There is a growing sentiment among some Israelis that a war with Hezbollah may be necessary to restore border security, while others express concerns about the consequences. In Lebanon, there is criticism of Hezbollah for potentially exposing the country to devastating consequences, but there are also those who believe that the militia's arsenal acts as a deterrent against Israeli aggression.
The impact of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely extend beyond their borders. It could involve Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and potentially draw in Iran itself. This scenario may also lead to increased involvement from the United States, as Israel's closest ally, which has already dispatched additional warships to the region.
Hezbollah possesses a substantial arsenal of rockets and missiles, estimated between 150,000 to 200,000, which far exceeds that of Hamas. These weapons have various ranges and significantly higher accuracy. In the event of a war, Lebanon would likely suffer significant damage to its infrastructure, potentially causing extensive civilian casualties. Israel, on the other hand, has invested in air defense systems such as the Iron Dome, which has a high success rate intercepting rockets. However, a mass barrage of rockets could still overwhelm the system. Approximately 40% of Israel's population live in newer homes with private safe rooms designed to withstand rocket attacks.
It is important to note that while both sides have made preparations, neither actually desires a full-scale war. However, the possibility of miscalculation or a spark that triggers wider conflict remains a concern. The current diplomatic efforts by the United States and European nations aim to prevent such a dangerous escalation and seek a peaceful resolution to the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is a complex and volatile situation that has the potential for devastating consequences. The memories of the 2006 war loom large, and the lessons learned from that conflict are guiding the actions and preparations of both sides. The hope remains that diplomatic solutions can prevail and prevent a wider conflict that would be challenging to control.
