ANALYSIS — Typically, the political law of gravity works one way: from the top down. A strong nominee at the top of the ticket can boost down-ballot candidates, or a weak nominee at the top can make it miserable for the rest of the party slate.
But next week’s elections in Virginia are testing whether a race down the ballot could drag down the top of the ticket. If it does, it might be the first diagnosed case of reverse coattails.
For months, Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger has had the advantage over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Spanberger has at least a couple of advantages: She’s been the better fundraiser, Virginia is a Democratic-leaning state and commonwealth history favors the party that does not occupy the White House. Inside Elections rates the Virginia gubernatorial race Lean Democratic.
