Is the Fed ready to go big? Analysts debate jumbo rate cut after soft jobs data

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is seen walking in Grand Teton National Park and squinting in direct sunlight on August 22, 2025 near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (Credit: Natalie Behring—Getty Images)

• The dismal August jobs report has now put a half-point September rate cut “in play,” according to some analysts, while others caution that inflation pressures from tariffs make a 50-basis-point cut unlikely. Futures tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate put odds of a half-point cut at around 11.7% after the jobs data, up from 0% on Thursday.

The case for a bigger rate cut is gaining momentum.