The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not seem to be in a comfortable position in the electoral contest in Uttar Pradesh despite its overwhelming organisational power and electoral machinery. The BJP even “managed” many small and medium parties in such a way that there would be some division in the votes of its main opposition alliance. Yet, the party, it seems, did not quite settle the issue of public dissatisfaction sufficiently.
Two major strategies that the party was confident would work seem to be failing this time round. One was the BJP’s strategy of polarisation, which worked in the 2017 Assembly elections and the 2019 general elections. The second was the “magic” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies. By the last week of February, when it became clear that neither of these was working, the BJP’s supporters began to grow uneasy. The weakening of the impact of both aggressive Hindutva politics and Mr. Modi’s speeches in this important election is a remarkable phenomenon.
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Diminishing appeal
The leaders and cadres of the Sangh Parivar were confident that the impact of communal divisions and religious polarisation would be visible from the first two phases and the electoral environment would have changed completely by the third and fourth phases. It was no coincidence that the row over wearing hijabs in educational institutions in Karnataka had reached a feverish pitch during the first two phases of voting. Yet, despite the Hindi mainstream media, and TV channels in particular, going to town with the issue with their near-24/7 coverage as well as the strong promotional efforts by Hindutva organisations, the electoral atmosphere in U.P. did not change much. Following the verdict of a local court in the 2008 Ahmedabad serial bomb blasts case, which was kept in abeyance since September 2021, there was again a provocative attempt to raise the communal pitch. The Samajwadi Party (SP)’s political dominance in Azamgarh district was a new angle that was sought to be exploited by the BJP.
Days before the third phase of polling, Mr. Modi took the electoral discourse to a new low by linking the SP’s symbol, the cycle, to the fact that the perpetrators of the blasts in Ahmedabad had kept explosives on cycles. The impact of the rhetoric of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and some Union Ministers will be known on the day of the election results, but was not clearly visible during the voting phase.
While the ruling party alleged that SP leaders are associated with terrorists, a large number of youth demanded at an election rally featuring Defence Minister Rajnath Singh that the government open the doors of employment in the Army and other security agencies. Lucknow is considered to be a stronghold of the BJP, but this attempt by the ruling party to link the SP’s election symbol with terror did not cut much ice with the public; in fact, many people laughed at these bizarre allegations. The election rallies did not have the same crowds as before.
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BJP leaders, who looked disappointed with the first and second phases of polling, said in informal discussions that the party’s real ‘Digvijay Yatra (conquest rally)’ would begin from the third phase. But the polarisation agenda seems to have had little effect. Besides, the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) did not seem to lean exclusively towards the BJP, as the party expected.
The SP-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) coalition also includes three regional parties – the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Mahan Dal and Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) – in its alliance. The first wields influence among the Rajbhars of Purvanchal (eastern U.P.); the second among the Shakya, Saini and Kushwaha communities of the western and central regions; and the third among the farmers of the Kurmi community. These are largely OBC-based parties. SBSP leader O.P. Rajbhar was once a minister in the Adityanath-led government, while AD(K) leader Pallavi Patel, the elder sister of Union Minister of State Anupriya Patel, is giving a tough fight to the State’s Deputy Chief Minister, Keshav Prasad Maurya, in the Sirathu seat in Allahabad. The efforts of leaders such as Swami Prasad Maurya have ensured that OBC votes are not divided in the way they were in previous elections.
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The OBCs in the BJP, who were upset that the ruling party “ignored the concerns of Dalits, backward communities, unemployed youth and small and medium businesspersons”, are also upset about its supposed inaction over the issue of crops being destroyed by stray cattle. The farmers who are facing this issue largely belong to castes that are part of the OBC category.
The BJP is now banking on the support of the upper Hindu castes, the business communities and the beneficiaries of government schemes. At the regional level, it expects more votes from Bundelkhand and Awadh. But not all beneficiaries of foodgrains, edible oil and other subsidies are favourable towards the BJP. During election rallies, many BJP candidates were heard asking voters why they were supporting the opposition when the government was providing them with foodgrains and financial assistance. The voters simply asked them to leave.
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It is now clear that there is significant resentment against the regime among the common people – particularly small and medium land-owning farmers, educated youth among the Dalits and OBCs, Muslims, and salaried workers. This is probably why the BJP carefully prepared for its campaigns and organisational work. Senior local leaders or RSS-VHP workers were entrusted with the tasks of booth management and mobilising votes based on the electoral rolls. In contrast, the organisational apparatus of the opposition parties is weak. Opposition workers were active during Akhilesh Yadav’s rallies and road shows, but were rarely seen campaigning at polling stations and at the grass-roots level. Many were heard saying that the “voters were fighting the elections for them”.
Electoral machinery
The State Election Commission’s decision to expand the scope of postal ballots is also perceived to have helped the ruling party. While the State Election Commission’s announcement that voters above the age of 80 years, physically challenged persons and those recovering from COVID-19 would be given the facility of casting their ballots from home may seem necessary on the one hand, the decision has reportedly been misused in every phase of voting. In many places, application forms to vote in this manner were pre-filled and ballot papers were not received till the end. Some did not vote, but their votes were registered on the postal ballot in Ghaziabad, Meerut and Kanpur, among other places. In many constituencies in Amroha, Moradabad, Aligarh, Ghaziabad, the names of thousands of voters were found missing from the voter list. The impact of this remains to be seen.
Anti-incumbency is dominant everywhere in U.P., except in some pockets such as Awadh and Bundelkhand. Whether anger against the government or the the efficiency of the electoral machinery prevails remains to be seen . And that is what will determine the victor.
Urmilesh is a Delhi-based independent journalist and writer, and a former Executive Editor of Rajya Sabha TV
